OK so Something That's been eating away from me since 6k but also the corrective cycle from 6k to 11.7k. I've seen mass adoption of the assumption the pull back from 20k to 6k was an impulse wave of sorts. That said, The very basic fundamentals of an impulse wave have 3 "Unbreakable Rules" of EWT. I've also see widely published and accepted TAs which identify the rally from 6k up an Impulse wave. Recently, I've seen another widely accepted theory the Recent pull back from 11.65k to 7.3k as an impulse wave. Now, regardless of the class of wave each of these are, each the waves noted break "Unbreakable Rules" of EWT. Specifically that a wave 4 can NEVER retrace into the price action of a wave 1. Yes I said NEVER!!!
That said, I see a lot of the TAs today assuming an ABC corrective wave from 20k to 6k or lower. I don't presently see evidence that's a safe assumption. What I do see is some amalgamation of combo corrective waves which I'm in all honesty not profficient enough in EWT to nail exactly. What I DO see though is an increasing squeeze in RSI, MACD, TTM, and every other oscilator available. I see a long standing overhead trend in the oscilators which follow the bear market trend downward. I ALSO see a significant bias of Bullish divergence which is coiling up for a massive break out in a posative and proffitable direction! I also see a near identicle copy of the combo corrective waves in smaller and further smaller price action variance.
I do believe we're VERY near a break out. I can't say with certainty we're not going to revisit 6k but given my observations, I also see reason to believe a following ATH after the impending break out is rather unlikely at this time. The 24 hour death cross seen in 50/200 MA is a big deal. I also have reason to believe the continued realization of that signal will follow the next upward direction break out. If you discect the Bullish divergence leading up to the Rally after 6k, you can see we have a much stronger Divergence Bias in our present replication of the combo corrective waves than we did then. This is a strong indication to me we have more potential upside to be realized before another pull back than we did then. Also, if we were to begin said break out in the very near future as the completion of the nearly mirrored combo corrective wave suggests to me when factoring in the Bullish Divergence Bias, we would also be starting the move up from a higher price action location than we had before.
I believe 7k is the most probable low for the immediate future and I believe the tension being built up and observed in the oscilators has very little room (if any) to continue on it's present squeeze before a break out. Because of the Bullish Divergence bias and reluctance of selling as seen in the order books preventing BTC from tanking more at this time and with most of the weak hands no longer trading the market while they wait for FOMO to take control again, I've taken my positions on fantastic assets and eagerly await their return so I may reap the rewards of their rush with new cash and side step when the corrective market continues and the weekly / monthly BTC RSI becomes oversold once more. Even if I lose some on a down trend at this time, I wont miss out on any unexpected or untimely pumps when the new break out trend is identified.
I hope my objective observations help your bottom line and assist with making clear decisions free of fearful emotions. My present bottom stop loss is 6.8k as I believe new lowere lows could begin a new panic sell sittuation where I'll hang for sub 6k levels. All that said, I think we're ready for some time to breath in the market and we'll see what happens next. Don't forget, Stocks and Bond markets are looking Terrible right now so a move up could always start a larger buying spree and a close eye on Bearish Divergence is a reasonable sell indicator in 4 hour timeframes and higher until a confirmed primary trend is deturmined.
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This wont allow me to update this with a chart for some reason so linking a new one.
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Which circle are we in now? That's the million dollar question. 6k is only wrong if We go up more than a bounce from 8k from there
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More like this
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Id like to add however, immediatly aftet that Mt.Gox cycle chart ends, there's another year and a half of pull back before we entered the Primary cycle to ATH
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The cup and handle was only a portion of the last primary cycle which was last summers pull back. We're starting an entire new one now which wont resolve quickly
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the handle in the cahrt above was another smaller cup and handle formation
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Ive updated this idea with new larger timeframe targets for the turn around.
@xuanhaimmoer, You sure on that? You're hedging on an assumption as I did.
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@xuanhaimmoer, Id also like to note, we're still in a MACD squeez and you're making the exact same error I did presuming a rally without evidence of it 1st and zero divergence to bet on. I at least had that going for me before it disolved
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@xuanhaimmoer, You see, The title "or tripple" means theres a likelyhood of another dump before your moon scenario and $4-5k btc levels. Hope you're right on that because your viewers are expecting the crash to be over on your chart and not just another bounce like an actual crash which will last all of 2018
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@xuanhaimmoer, Im just proffiting the bounces until its over. Not trying to hold down another dump cycle. Theres zero evidence its over as we havnt yet seen the consolidation phaze and MACD expanding out yet which is necessary to predict a moon phaze
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@xuanhaimmoer, Im following you now so I can help you update when the bounce ends.
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I'd like to add The pink Circled wave in the chart I believe to be nothing more than a connection of the two combo corrective wave and is the reason I brought attention to it.