Ok, for starters, let me just state what should be obvious, as this is the concept of "Ideas" in Trading View: I'm entertaining a possibility, I'm not saying that this is what I believe is going to happen and, in this particular case, I don't even think that this is going to happen. This is just meant as "food for thought" or even a fun approach to TA.
You will notice that there are 3 time periods of exactly two weeks (15 days) with key events and/or announcements: Bitcoin Gold/Segwit2x cancellation/another run up based on news/a date that I'm speculating will be a catalyst based on the fortnight parcels.
Both targets 1 and 2 are strong resistance points, which I value over Fibonacci areas, and you will notice how well the 50-day average lines up with the upward channel's lower limit.
Bitcoin is overbought, but that probably raises nothing more than a yawn by now. I believe that whichever way it goes it's down to the smart money to decide. This is still a pretty low cap market no matter how much it has grown, but here's an idea for a possible short. After all, the number of people willing to pay 10k for a Bitcoin, no matter how many newbies are being lured into the market, is slim. I don't see this correcting for very long, though, but who knows.
The CME Futures cancellation is offered as a possible catalyst of many, I have no reason to believe that this will happen. Don't worry, when the distribution phase is done with and whales need to take the market down they will make sure to come up with a good excuse for FUD.
Disclaimer: this is not financial advice, etc. etc. You know the drill.
Simple and honest analysis, i like it. It's true we wont know what the money that be has in store for this coin but being overbought as it is, I want to see a correction. Just as its done before, too risky to enter long now. Could you explain what FUD means? Thanks
Thanks, @bambam320, and that's perfectly reasonable after such a parabolic run up without a serious correction. FUD stands for Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. It's one of the reasons that lead people to sell off their asset.
deveci.as95
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Maybe a black swan event like usdt? who knows...
SafeGamble
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@deveci.as95, possibly, but if that 10k sell wall drops or is eaten up by buy orders, you could also see a major parabolic run that is even more unsustainable than the current one. I mean, who is interested in selling Bitcoin right now besides people calling for a correction and margin traders expecting the plunge? China FUD is over, institutional investors are coming in and the mainstream is learning about it. This could be madness from December onwards.