This post will cover the short-term aspect of Bitcoin, as what appears to be impulse waves. I will update shortly on the very short-term scale to show validity in the wave count. This is appears to be the end of the Bitcoin Correction. Many more short-term updates to come along with new targets. Follow for updates :).
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Sorry for delay, my laptop died and I was in class when I posted this. Here is the 1 minute chart. Everything is checking out so far. If the correction retraces the full length, then this was surely a failed breakout.
Update: I got a 74% and an 85% on the two exams I didn't study for last week. C's get degrees, you feel me?
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For all my day traders out there. Here is a possible scenario in the short term if these supports hold. Possible ascending wedge, if wedge breaks short of 5th touch, then secondary support could hold.
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Sorry, minor hiccup in miniscule wave count. Here is alternate. Target is still the same.
On another note: I've noticed nearly every correction, whether is is a five minute or 30 minute correction, they have been sharp corrections. That's why I'm assuming this sharp, ABCDE descending wedge for this next corrective play.
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Holy crap look at how far we are from the 55 EMA on the 5 minute scale. Here is a shorting opportunity. After the long-position is reached, I think the bears can make this quick play for a 10% gain.
I wish I could short. I'm pretty confident that it doesn't rise above that long position spot, but I could very well be wrong. I'm off to go cook some dinner while you guys make money.
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SCREW Dinner!! Guys, this support at $7300 is going to be strong as shit!! Not only does nearly EVERY time frame have either a 8,13,21 or 55 EMA around that area, but it would also be the .328 fib level if this target is reached.
Bears and Bulls lets work together! While you guys short the crap down, I'm setting a buy order right there at that level for another possible 4-6% gain! Playing the bounces on this thing will be fun.
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Nooo, It may be time to sell. Support lines are being broken. I'm not going to give up on it just yet, but keep in mind that this thing can go lower and fail to reach my $8100 target.
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Current thought process on what's going on. If the target is reached, watch how this supports and resistances come into play later on.
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Current thoughts. I will take profit at the top of the resistance only to wait and see what happens at these next levels of support. Here are the Bull, Base and Bear scenarios. I'm getting bullish indication from my higher scale time frames, so I'm running with my Bull/Base Case here.
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I'm out guys. If this is the top, then our re-entry zone is actually still the same. I will see if there's any bullish supports, but not seeing it for now.
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$6800 Correction Target
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Bitcoin is one Bullish SOB!! Holy crap, it failed to reach my re-entry box and stayed in the .382 retrace zone. We're headed UP!
So here are a few things to think about:
I'm very positive we are going to hit the $10,000 mark. Target 3.1 would be a 1 to 1 extension of wave 3, and 1 of the 5 waves are likely to be extended on this run. If wave 3 is not extended to hit target 3.2, then target 5.1 will surely be hit by wave 5 and even possibly target 5.2! Good luck guys! These next few days are showing to be very fun.
I will not activate the trade, as I hope you all are using your own judgement for buy zones. But I will update when targets are reached, as well as extra short term stuff.
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5 minute scale. This small correction is likely to be over.
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Here is what an extended wave would look like. We would need a parabolic move with a pretty decent retrace following it. I don't know if this is likely to happen, but its a possibility to keep in mind.
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If this support doesn't hold
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Lesson time!
Alright, so this one may be hard to explain, so I'll try to go into depth. Right here, I'm seeing that we have the possibility of an extended 5th wave to 10k based off of my indicators.
30 minute MACD: We notice that on each bullish divergence on the downside of the 30 min scale, we get a very large wave structure that leads leads to much higher highs. The last time it diverged from the downside, a bullish swing of $1500 happened. Notice how it didn't diverge to the negative side on these smaller subwaves before, that means we will have a lot of force in this next wave. That is also why sub wave 4 (blue) consolidation was much longer than wave 2 (blue) consolidation.
30 Min. Stoch RSI: It is just as oversold as it was on wave 2 (white) consolidation. This means it has a lot of upside!
30 Min RSI: You see the similarities in location and bullishness?
Combine this with the proper wave count, fib extension, a bullish market and volume and an extended 5th wave is very possible. This will at least be a 1 to 1 extension of wave 3 (blue) and our 3.1 target is HIGHLY likely to be hit.
This isn't necessarily something that is taught, or a common pattern. But it is just recognizing patterns in your indicators that could help support further conclusions. Indicators are to be used as confirmations and whatever your thesis is.
FUN FACT: I'm not even trading Bitcoin right now. I'm just using it to decide on what to do with Verge. I'm trading verge to leverage the movements of Bitcoin because they are almost identical in movements, but Verge has higher upside in terms of per cent gain. I won't be able to do this forever, because at some point they will depart, but it times of major market bounces when the whole market is following Bitcoin; then you could do this!
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Lesson time #2!!
This BULLISH 3 candle pattern formation is called a "morning star"! It includes a red candle (usually with a longer body) with a separation between its close and the next red candles open just like this. The next red candle usually will have a very small body along with a large green candle that follows.
This is an indication of an illiquid downtrend with very low volume, followed by the continuation of its preceding uptrend! You don't usually see gaps in crypto. So I thought this was an awesome time to show this candle pattern!
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Overall trend is still bullish, and I still expect to reach our target. BUT, here is an alternate wave count. We failed on momentum, and its possible that we just creating a WXY pattern.
Lesson #3: It is possible to have a 9 wave structure! When 5 subwaves are unidentifiable and there are more waves within the structure, it is possible that there is a 9 wave structure! A very fascinating thing that could be a valid wave count here.
I will also upload another bear scenario for those feeling skeptical on the movements.
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Please read everything on the photo for the Bear scenario. I do not see this as being likely, but it is possible.
Remember, these updates are for educational purposes only. Knowing when to buy and sell is up to you all (even though it seems like I do the opposite LOL).
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Possible drop to $7800
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With these current movements, a double bottom at $6000 is not impossible
Giao dịch được đóng thủ công
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For some reason I cannot upload photos right now. But for now I'm closing this trade. It looks like we have downwards potential of the 6k range. I am sad.
You are so smart!! And so very nice to give of your time like you do. I am curious...when you get out of school, what are your career goals? Are you in school full-time now? And may I ask how old you are? You really are very talented and have a big future ahead of you, it seems. Just wanted to say thanks for all your analysis! If my questions are too personal in nature, just ignore them. :)
Elijah_Trading
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@emily100, thank you very much! And no, its not too personal, I consider you all a part of the crypto family! Yes I'm in school full time, I play football as well. I will likely do this as my full-time job if the NFL is a no-go. I hope is well with you!
Elijah_Trading
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@Eball8, I am 20 years old btw.
emily100
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@Eball8, WHAT!@#! Are you serious?! Wow. Ok, hats off to you! The world is your oyster, Eball8!! And best of luck with the NFL....but even if that doesn't work out somehow, I tend to think you will be just fine!! :) Thanks for all you do to help us!
Elijah_Trading
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@emily100, Thank you very much for those kind words!!
CryptoKid26
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@Eball8, Position ? Big time school?
Elijah_Trading
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@CryptoKid26, I play receiver at an FBS school. Tore my ACL before last season so that's how I got into day trading xD
CryptoKid26
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@Eball8, Nice. Always another door. I hurt back. Linebacker and Fullback