On April 28, 2017, Citigroup stock (
C
) 20 day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 100 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 237 times and the stock does not always continue to drop. The median drop is 3.213% and maximum drop is 37.140% over the next 11 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 49.4113. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has been neutral and not likely to produce volatile price swings.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -4.9549. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, but has begun to slightly move up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8428 and the negative is at 0.9875. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 66.5123 and D value is 62.8527. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock did not make it to overbought territory before recently reversing downward. This indicator does not always have to break above the overbought level before reversing, but there is always the slightest chance it could move up. The latter is not likely however due to the stock's position in its multiple trend channels and lines of resistance.
Four days prior to this cross below the 100 DMA, the stock crossed above the 100 DMA. This similar cross up and cross down within 5 trading days has occurred 11 times since the financial crisis recovery began. It has occurred in May 2009, June 2009, July 2009, June 2010, July 2010, August 2010, December 2011, October 2013, June 2014, July 2014, November 2015. The stock dropped 0.595%, 15%, 8.571%, 8.354%, 2.036%, 8.845%, 13.444%, 3.559%, 1.159%, 1.938%, 1.27% on the respective occasions. The minimal drop was 0.595% while the median drop was 3.559% over the next 11 trading days on these occasions.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down in the near term. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 1.39% if not more over the next 11 trading days.
C
) 20 day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 100 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 237 times and the stock does not always continue to drop. The median drop is 3.213% and maximum drop is 37.140% over the next 11 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 49.4113. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has been neutral and not likely to produce volatile price swings.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -4.9549. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, but has begun to slightly move up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8428 and the negative is at 0.9875. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 66.5123 and D value is 62.8527. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock did not make it to overbought territory before recently reversing downward. This indicator does not always have to break above the overbought level before reversing, but there is always the slightest chance it could move up. The latter is not likely however due to the stock's position in its multiple trend channels and lines of resistance.
Four days prior to this cross below the 100 DMA, the stock crossed above the 100 DMA. This similar cross up and cross down within 5 trading days has occurred 11 times since the financial crisis recovery began. It has occurred in May 2009, June 2009, July 2009, June 2010, July 2010, August 2010, December 2011, October 2013, June 2014, July 2014, November 2015. The stock dropped 0.595%, 15%, 8.571%, 8.354%, 2.036%, 8.845%, 13.444%, 3.559%, 1.159%, 1.938%, 1.27% on the respective occasions. The minimal drop was 0.595% while the median drop was 3.559% over the next 11 trading days on these occasions.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down in the near term. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 1.39% if not more over the next 11 trading days.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
