Full disclosure. My first post. I hope I do a good service with this analysis.
My Analysis:
In short, CCL retraced a hair above 50% of its previous high. History says it's not going to create a new low. So I'm bullish with the consolidation I highlighted, its building strength for a big bull run up to $18.
I set FIB to whole numbers -- $19 (high) /$8 (low) because computer algorithm is programmed to hit those numbers.
Hi - great first post! An alternative perspective, is that the stock failed to reach it's previous high at $19. Typically, a 38% retrace from a downtrend, indicates a strong downtrend. In addition, it's technically in a descending triangle, which suggests a 53% upward breakout with a performance rank of 55 out of 56 (1). To me, this indicates that there is a 47% chance CCL will not breakout and that the descending triangle is a poor indication of breakouts all-together. To your point, "History says it's not going to create a new low," there are a few sub $4 lows on CCL and what is the impetus for a bull run?
@chiefwils0n, great points and thanks for taking the time to chat.
My thoughts:
1/ On Apr 9, it broke the 50% retracement, then went on for consolidation.
2/ The triangle to me looks pretty even, so if you guess which way it goes based on the triangle, it's 50/50 up or down.
3/ However, I do think that the price won't go lower than the previous low (7.79ish) because history suggests that if price retraces over 50%, it is more likely to go up and breaks above the previous high (19ish)
4/ The $4 low you are referring to (which was in the 80's) is a none factor in this (short time frame) analysis.
Source:
(1) thepatternsite.com/dt.html