Long Oil cho NYMEX:CL1! bởi smitheric1970

As Oil is breaking into higher territory, I have gone to an older monthly range as outlined in my 'Oil - Bullish to 68.X ?' chart; this chart will serve to update my daily view. These daily ranges are clones, which are quartered; I have found that these clones of a 45.62-50.27 range that I've published a few times to remain significant; so I look at high volume breaks above or below these levels to help determine my short term direction (profit taking/position adding levels) on what I hope is oil's path to 64.x and possibly 68.x. Typically when prices reach the top of a daily range, in this case 64.62, we will see a significant break based on volume; hopefully this chart will help illustrate that.

Short term - I will look for prices to test the midpoint of this range at 62.25 and this will be my first target.

Entry: 59.57-59.87
TP1: 62.25 (Additional targets updated on daily basis but note that each line up on the chart is a TP as I initially enter with multiple positions)
SL: 58.9

Here is a view of the Monthly range from 59.73-68.94 that I am looking for a repeat of:

Please let me know if you have any questions, good trading all!

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First 2 Target Prices: As these targets are hit I will take partial profits and look for pullbacks to re-add long positions.

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Update on the 2015 'Failed' demand zone. Right panel shows current H4 view of that inflection zone: 59.61-59.77 Bulls are working hard to recreate support here.

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So far this 59.57-59.87 buying zone is wet paint... Very neutral EIA report today.

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For those of you that complained there were no candles to the left to reference on the published chart, aka @TuanNguyen713; here is a daily chart showing the two clone ranges with earlier reference; those of course won't show on one screen with current time on H4 as they are too far back in time; but there is probably a Tradingview tutorial somewhere for scrolling to the left :) But note; the range I'm looking for is the '05 monthly range explained above, the clone/stagger levels will be used dynamically in trading potential swings on the way up.

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I used H4 on the published chart as I've found that it best shows price action in relation to these static clones; here is an H4 view of the same chart from the 2014 drop:

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While we are patiently waiting for prices to break above the buy zone and into the daily range; an IMPORTANT note: Where the 2015 inflection zone failed and sellers took over (59.61-59.77) - sellers are currently getting absorbed, in my opinion, this is VERY important and an early bullish signal:

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And FINALLY, we have a very nice move above the 2015 inflection, prices could still pullback into it, but for me, as stated above, this is a signal that where sellers overtook buyers at this zone in 2015, sellers are getting absorbed here and I will expect solid support here soon as we are also seeing a strong move above the bottom of the daily range at 59.87.

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Well so far all is looking good; at some point I will expect validation of the range bottom at 59.87 but am hoping we hit a TP level first so we can get a nice pullback before re-adding some longs. If you watch MA's, I am excited to see how this view plays out, we recently saw a really nice break of the weekly 200 MA and are currently sitting at the 2014/2015 MONTHLY 200 MA break and retest point = The change in the SUPPLY zone on this chart into DEMAND, mid term... I've included my two daily ranges on the chart.

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Just a reminder on the first two Take Profit levels; with a minor change, the initial profit level was 62.25; small change: TP1: 62.24, TP2: 63.43 and again, at these levels I am taking partial profits and will look for pullbacks and/or support structures to add more long positions.

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Couple of notes/updates: 1. I've added to the profit/pullback chart, essentially, yes, it's just taking partial profits at each level and adding long positions on pullbacks to each level. 2. The second chart shows a daily inflection at 63.02 form the 2014 leg down, I am curious to see what happens there, if prices breach 62.25, it would not surprise me to see some pullback at that 63.02 inflection...

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The 2014 Daily

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Really no significant updates for the coming week, looking at the same Partial Profit taking levels and buy levels on pullbacks. This may change depending on price structure and volume but for now, if we see a move up to 65.8 within the next couple of weeks, I will likely switch to a short model as I'm assuming we may see strong supply in the 65.78-67 range. So, will switch to a short model at 65.78, with partial Partial Profit taking and re-adding shorts at the same levels as the long model. (ok roughly the same levels, my superstition is buying 1 cent above my levels and selling 1 cent below my levels. Lol) Have a great trading week all!

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No changes to the plan, other than FINALLY taking partial profit, woohoo!

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With a solid volume breach of 62.25, the midpoint of the daily range, I now expect prices to test the top of the current daily range at 64.62. Keep in mind we have a daily inflection shown below at 63.02; while it's possible to see a reversal there, we have structure over the past few days and a high volume break up, this gives me hope that a strong EIA could break the 63.02 inflection, creating higher support and helping us get to our 65.8-67 supply level, which also concides with the next high 2014 daily inflection.

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Small 15 minute timeframe, keeping an eye on volume and that 63.02 Daily Inflection shown above; if we get a neutral to bullish API report and bullish EIA report then I'm hoping we consolidate above and then see support at 63.02:

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-11.19 crude draw estimated on API, that is big... We've hit our second Partial Profit taking level at 63.43 - no change to the plan; although, stay tuned as we will need to be dynamic if 65.81 hits, it is very possible that I will decide to stay in a long model and continue buying pullbacks, but for now, 65.78-67 is my supply zone as I would be surprised if we did not see a pullback between 65.8 and 65.99.

Good trading all

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Interested in others views, questions, comments!

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Wow, prices have been on a tear and woohoo, we reached another Partial Profit Level. I will be staggered out of long positions at 65.78 and will enter a Short model if we see it in the coming days BUT AGAIN; this is dynamic and I may choose to remain in a Long model if dictated by price action/volume but will keep updates coming if that happens.

Please NOTE: I've moved the closest Pullback Buy up to 63.74 rather than the quarter mark. No other changes to the plan.

Good trading all!

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That was a quick exchange today; already bought back additional Longs at 63.74; hopefully prices will stay low through mon if you didn't get a chance to add the longs.

NOTE: If you Re-added Long Positions don't forget to set sells for Partial profit again at 64.61

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IMPORTANT UPDATE: CHANGE TO SHORT MODEL LEVEL
It has been a fabulous week trading and I have made an important modification to my supply level = My initial SELLING ZONE was 65.78-67.00; part of this is because we have a daily inflection at 65.99 from 2014; however the 4 Hour view shows a strong swing low at 64.62 (current range top) and a strong Demand/Supply Exchange at 67.00. As my long game is to continue running a long model up to 69/70; I've decided that even if 65.8 pulls back, I will just continue with the Pullback Buys and Partial Long Profit taking.

THE NEW SELL/SHORT ZONE is: 66.69-67.00 - If price reaches 66.69 I will have closed out all Long positions and will begin a Short Model intending on switching back to a Long Model again at 64.92.

Below I will show the updated Target chart and the 2014 4 Hour view showing my reason for change in Short Level.

Have a great week all and as usual, I'd appreciate any questions, comments or criticism.

Good trading!

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One additional note that I 'hope' will become important. It may seem odd that I shaded the levels between the ranges, somewhat of a red/grey bullseye. Well I am hoping that the 64.62 level becomes a median - I would like to see prices run the 59.87-70 level for the first half of '18 and basically swing around the 64.62 median where we would remain in the long model stagger from 61.06 and short model stagger from 68; if that does indeed play out then we may have an opportunity for 2,000 to 4,000 ticks/pips of swings over the next several months. Maybe pie in the sky hopes, but fingers crossed!

Have a great weekend all!

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No Updates heading into the week: Just want to reiterate that the next Partial Profit taking level is 65.78 and I will fully reverse to a short position at 66.69. I will likely be reversing back to a long position between 63.43 and 64.62 (if all of this plays out) so will be shorting three positions to stagger (Partial Profits at levels on the way down and will use the same Add-Short Pullbacks, vice versa to what we did on the way up. A position could be 3 shares, 3 contracts, 100 or any number of shares or contracts that you split into three large positions for each Partial Profit level. The more positions you trade, the more creative you can get with managing risk to reward while staggering. For example, if you were trading 10 shares or contracts, and we are staggering 3 levels, you could short 10 shares/contracts, buy back two at the first level to manage risk in the event that prices go the wrong way, buy back 5 at the next level to ensure you hold on to those golden profits and even better manage risk and then close then last 3 out if/when the third level is reached. If this doesn't make sense or if you'd like to discuss further and or see a chart, let me know.

Good trading week to all!

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One more note: If prices do reach my Sell level at 66.69 by chance this week, it will be a sell at 66.69 on the CLH8 (March futures contract) as this is the last week prior to rollover. Quite a bit of volume started moving into the H contract, this is the last trading week on CLG8 prior to rollover and I the spread is currently less than 10 cents.

Please let me know if you have any questions. If futures front month rolling into back month is new to you, Investopedia is a great resource:

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The very first update to this post shows the Monthly range that I based this publish off of which is a 57.32-68.94 monthly range from 2005. Here I've broken that '05 range down into what I feel are significant daily levels and sure enough we have some confluence on current daily action on the way up; Notice the strong 63/63.7-67 range in '05 that I am using as a guide for our current 'near' 67 reversal zone:

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To illustrate the significance of the significance of the lower yellow box range in '05, take a look at the extended range in 2015 that prices gapped down below - telling me that range is a significant demarcation zone when broken above, or below:

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So here you can see that If we are repeating a larger older range, the significant levels within the older range may have the same impact on current price action, so bringing those levels to the present, we have have a guide to signal breakdown/breakups in the coming weeks/months:

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And you'll notice that my 'blank slate' clone levels in the published chart at the top are roughly based on this overall expected movement. If similar to '05 we could possibly see this range play out into mid 2018Hopefully we can successfully ride the waves a bit longer and coast into the shore without wiping out... Lol sorry for the cheesy analogy...

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No changes to the previous targets; however, if prices do break upwards again this week there is potential for large intra-day swings; I do not like to add the 'Pullback Buy" level to the chart, unless the upper 'Partial Profit' level has been reached and I do not always set them right at the levels on the chart. So just a heads up, if prices do reach the $65.78 Partial Profit level, I will be setting the Pullback Buy level at $64.92. And currently not other changes, if futures traders , if 66.69 level is reached on the current contract I will start a short model on the CLH8.

Good trading all!

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Note: Any concerns with yesterday feeling bearish: while we saw what felt like bearish volume and candles, prices held there ground which tells me that sellers were likely being absorbed again. Please take a look two charts up (the one with the large yellow squares) - whenever prices dipped int to he 63-63.67 zone, they were quickly bought back above it, signaling that we may see similar support in that zone again, mid term as we saw in '05. Another daily close above 64.62 will be a good sign that the 65.78 partial profit level is going to get tested.

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Lots of craziness after hours today - There is no change to the plan. If we get a DAILY CLOSE below 63.00 then I'll re-assess and update. Patience....

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Again, no updates unless we have a DAILY close below 63. For what it's worth, this is the same chart, posted just above and prices have stopped right at the midline of the channel that I have laid out. (I do not put much weight in channels... they are fickle) Nonetheless, the touch on the midline gives me a little bit of hope for a bounce back up into this weeks range.

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Update: Saturday 12/20: *** UPDATE - RE-ADD POSITION***
Looking left we see the 2014 crash; where prices showed indecision by creating a daily doji prior to further breakdown. I believe this level is the median of the overall range that we will see in the mid term; and so I believe all of the high volume sideways price action was large money hedging in both directions, roughly, down to 58 and up to 68, +/- 1.00; The chart below shows the 2014 doji, and breakdown bar level and the current March contract that prices have rolled into for the coming week. So far, although Thursday and Friday felt heavy, prices seemed to have battled to stay above this breakdown level. I have decided to increase risk a bit and Re-Add a long position when the market opens tomorrow; between 63.43-63.73; this increases risk as prices may still drop down to 62.25 but I believe this will be short lived if it happens and have the extra capital from the overall trade to help with increasing our risk.

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Notice on the CLH8 chart, that prices have shown strong demand at the 63 level; which I have mentioned in previous updates (strong historic 63-63.67 zone since 2005)
Here is the updated Trading Chart; showing the 'Re-Add Long'

I hope that you all are having a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead!

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*** SEE CHART ABOVE FOR TRADING UPDATES ***

The chart below shows what I believe is our median and 2018 Mid-Term range relative to 2014 price action:

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The additions to the 2018 Mid-Term range below IN DARK RED show price behavior down to and up to the median level in 2014 and why I believe prices may stay in the upper portion of the range for a while - the bar pattern in blue is a copy of the Dec2016-March2017 price action which was a price TOP in early 2017; maybe we will see a similar repeat this year? If so, I would look for the 2014 swing low marked at 65.99 to act as a median in the upper range and possibly see an extended range swing around it between approximately 64-68. This is of course a pie in the sky assumption at this point... :)

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*** Prices being ABOVE the current median is another strong reason that I am Re-Adding a Long position at market open tomorrow.

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12/22 Update:
Added Long position at 63.43; Next Partial Profit Level at 65.78; I am still assuming a temporary switch to short model at 66.69; if that happens I would plan on resuming the long model near 65.82.

Although the past week has required patience; prices are continuing to hold the historic 63-63.67 zone; again, I my current view will not change unless we see a 'Daily Close' below 63.00.

Good trading all!

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Note that I removed the 62.26 Pullback Buy after adding long at 63.43; as my initial trade was 5 positions and goal was to be able to stagger up to 66.69; Following that potential scenario temporary short model scenario, I will go back into a Long model again with multiple positions, where I will likely enter a final short model if the 68 level is hit as again, currently I believe that we may see a 63/64-68/69 range for several weeks. As well, for myself (I did not include it in this charts updates as it increases risk) I have added additional long positions fixed ratio/with profits to my original position size. I increased my overall position size as well on the last Pullback Buy level. I don't necessarily recommend this as it exponentially increases risk if you are trading futures. Staggering WITHOUT adding position size can provide a great risk/reward model. Increasing positions size fixed ratio/with profits can dramatically increase reward; however, be sure that you understand the increased risk and manage each added position as a new trade, else all of your profits can sink quickly. Please let me know if you have any questions.

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Update 12/23: I am not recommending this; however, I will be increasing risk in my trade again by adding additional long positions again; based on profits from the overall trade at 63.43. I have already Added Long; and believe there is risk on these down to approximately 63.6 but am willing to take a chance on EIA. Overall in this trade I believe we have potential risk down to 62.25 but based on long term levels of strength and this weeks continued high volume, methodical build above those levels I am looking for that final break above 64.62 into the Upper Range.

Other than the Added Longs, no changes to the plan. Partial Profit at 5.78, that will initiate a Re-Add Long at 64.93 and I am still looking to short at 66.69 at this point. THAT MAY CHANGE so stay tuned for potential updates. My end-game is a long model to 68/69 so switching to a short model risks initiating a chase back into Long vs just staying in a long model and continuing the staggering.

Intraday, I believe we have strength at 64.32 and that 64.32-64.62 will become a new Demand area in the coming weeks, UNLESS we see a bearish report pressure prices.

Good trading all!

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Note in advance: On a switch to full short model at 66.69, this would be a one level short and will be followed by re-entering a Long model again at 65.85.

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****UPDATE 12/23****: My apologies if this is confusing after the last update but I decided it best to detail out our trading levels a bit more:

Although there is inherent risk to the downside at this point, I've decided to add a bit of detail ahead of time as there is also risk in prices running up and us not taking some money off the table; so... as I've been aggressively building positions here; I will stagger a bit more aggressively as we approach the 67 level. Please let me know if you have any questions or if the way I have the 'PullBack Buy's laid out does not make sense. Essentially The Partial Profit levels will average down our long position, tabling profits, as we approach the Short Model level at 66.69 where all Long positions will be closed and we will open short positions. The Pullback Buys levels on this chart are only used to Add Long positions IF the Partial Profit level above the is reached first.

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Both Partial Profit and Pullback Buys levels on this chart only pertain to the current Long Model that we are running.

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CORRECTION: I noticed that the upper Pullback Buy was labeled 65.11, this should be 66.11; So, if the 66.40 Partial Profit is taken, Re-Add the Long position at 65.11

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UPDATE 1/24: ****UPDATED TRADING CHART****

Great trading day today, we finally saw the break out of contraction with some very nice expansion. I believe that prices may see solid support at the 65.4 level, there was an enormous amount of volume that moved up from there.

No changes to the trading plan; however I have some updates on the next few trades below; I am still planning on closing out of all long positions and entering a temporary short model at 66.69 but will quickly re-enter a long model at 65.86; swings may happen quickly so I wanted to show my thoughts in advance (which of course may change but I will generally always provide the day prior) - so please let me know if the upcoming trade strategy does not make sense as the chart is a bit convoluted.

Good trading all!

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Sorry I forfot to show the Partial Profit taken at 65.78 in the last update!!! And that was a big part of today's news!

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Here's a bit simpler/cleaner view of what I am hoping for above without all of the target and pullback levels:

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Update: 1/25: **65.25 PULLBACK BUY MOVED UP TO 65.56**
It's 1:30 am here and I sure am tired. Things are moving quickly here as we approach the midpoint of the daily range. The 66.40 Partial Profit level was reached and we've already Re-Added those longs at 66.11.

*****NOTE******* UPDATED TRADING CHART BELOW: I HAVE MOVED THE 65.25 PULLBACK BUY LEVEL UP TO 65.56. This increases risk a bit but based on volume analysis yesterday I believe that we may see strong demand in the 65.3-65.5 area. I believe the ECB speaks on interest rates today; will be interesting to see the impact on markets.

Good trading all! Time for sleep....

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Unfortunately we have heavy selling that started only 3 cents below our Short Model level of 66.69! But that's how it goes sometimes... No changes to the plan; still in Long Model; Pullback Buy at 65.56

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1/25 End of day Update: ****CHANGE TO LONG MODEL PRICE****

What an end to the day, quite a bit taken back from us after Trump mentioned a stronger dollar. I believe that this will be short lived, that the DX has broken through critical levels and the worst case scenario is oil finds strong buying at 64.62.

Because we did not see a higher close today; prices created a daily inflection yesterday at 65.88. So, there is a slight change to the Long Model reversal on our trading chart; I am moving it from 65.86 to 65.89.

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1/25 ***UPDATED TRADING CHART****:

So for now, no changes to the plan, only a minor change to the Long Model entry if the Short Model scenario plays out; again, Long Model has changed from 65.86 to 65.89

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1/26: ****IMPORTANT UPDATE TO SHORT MODEL*****

NO SHORT MODEL AT 66.69

I mentioned before that I would remain dynamic in possibly removing the temporary 66.69 short model and based on current price/structure/volume, I've decided to just maintain the long model up to our final target zone. So, although that scenario may still play out, I believe there is risk in trying to catch a short term swing; as we likely saw that move yesterday and unfortunately missed the sell by 3 cents.

I've included the updated Long Model Trading Chart below:

Please let me know if you have any questions and good trading all!

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I posted this chart early on in tis publish and believe the 2014 levels shown will become more significant in the coming weeks. My assumption has been a 4-5 dollar range for potentially a couple of months and I believe that sideways action is beginning. Based on the volume and price structure Thursday and Friday, I have moved the Supply/Demand and trading levels up a notch and although I am assuming prices will reach 68/69 level, that the majority of the swings ahead will be in the 65-67 range.

Have a great weekend all!

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The view above shows my close trading levels, I just prefer to use static, unchanging levels as a basis for my actual trades; the anaylsis that goes into my price movement is mainly based on Inflections; volume, price breakup/breakdown forming structures; this is a bit more detailed chart than the one above outlining some 2014 structures that we may see coming into play (similar to the chart above but with more specific views)

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and so here; as we can see that Buyers have regained control at the 64.70 Demand level I am looking up at the 2014 Structure; I am now looking UP at the 2014 structure to see where the sellers took control. It is clearly very possible for buyers to quickly press this up to the 69-69.5 level but it was short lived and buyers just could not keep prices sustained above the 68 level; so I a looking for continued selling strength there, essentially giving me this view:

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OOPS, that was the same chart and TV won't let me delete it. So, essentially giving me THIS view:

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1/28 UPDATE: ****TRADING MODEL UPDATE****

I have made a slight change to the trade levels this week from what I posted on Friday - however the short model level is still 67.89. As I staggered a bit aggressively last week, I've decided to keep the staggering light this week as we are very close to the Short Model price. I have the next Partial Profit level at 67.29 with a Pullback Buy at 66.71 if that is reached. Hoping that we may see a tight range if prices move up, I will re-use those same stagger levels until our Short Model target is reached at 67.89. Though as always, we need to remain dynamic, and this plan can change anytime.

REGARDING THE 67.89 SHORT MODEL TARGET: I see possible RISK in this Short Model entry up to 69.37; Better risk/reward short entries could be 68.48 or 69.07; however, the overall model has given the ability to increase risk a bit so i will possibly be entering a short model a bit early but... Like a surfer dropping into a wave; you cannot paddle into the wave (which we call 'chasing' in trading) you need to drop in ahead of the wave and ride it.

UPDATED TRADING MODEL LEVELS:

Good trading all!

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Hello all, I am sorry that I did not post an update earlier today, and wow what an ugly day for long positions... ugh... If your SL's were hit, then good for you for taking profit in the overall trade. If you are painfully sitcking it out, then I'm with you. Large weekly legs have large daily swings within them, and large daily legs have large 4 hour swings within them, etc... I try to stagger to reduce risk in the event these pullbacks are in fact a full reversal. Taking profits sooner vs later decreases risk/reward. And that is a good thing; but... I seeing if I can tame this wild bull. As stated in previous updates, 63-63.67 is a long term reversal zone, prices have fallen all the way down to it which coincidentally also hit the Daily 20 MA. The DX has not shown any strength yet, a bounce at the 20 MA is probable and I am assuming that most of a bearish EIA build report is priced in, unless it is very bearish. Lets see what tomorrow brings. If you are out, and looking to get in, then I like a buy stop in the 64.32-64.62 zone for a break back into the Upper Daily Range.

My concern: prices have fallen below the Daily range on a daily close and below the red median; I did not expect this. However the structure bears a strong resemblance to the large wedge from a few weeks back shown below here where we currently match the previous wedge on it's second leg at a .786 retrace - for all the fibbers out there. If... this wedge continue to play out as I've drawn it, it potentially projects to the top of the daily range at 69.37

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If ever lag again on an update, especially on a volatile day like today and you have any questions about my possession, I'm usually fairly quick at responding to PM.

Good trading all!

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1/31 Update:

No changes; just being patient waiting for this consolidation zone to play out; unfortunate that I did not anticipate this as staggering during this consolidation would have been very lucrative; I am keeping this chart fixed ratio (only building with profits off of the initial trade), though I am a bit more aggressive with my trading account and have added long positions on market open this evening.

In my opinion prices are accumulating; fortunately they did validate the 63.67 level (I've mentioned a long term 63-63.67 zone of strength in several posts above; and although yes, it was really nice to see that validation technically, it was painful as I was not anticipating it! Here is a chart explaining why with all of the volume that we've seen over the past week, much of which seemed to be selling; that I still believe that we are in an accumulation range and will test 68/69

Good trading all!

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If/When the 64.95 and 65.64 levels are broken, then I believe our rally will continue again.

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On the chart above, note that with all of the high volume selling that we saw the past couple days, that today's bounce created a higher low = sellers are continuing to get absorbed.

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1/31 ****UPDATED TRADING CHART***

I just posted no updates but decided that after the last two painful days, that if we see a surprise run up, we should end the week tabling some cash for the weekend. A rally to 66.80 seems unlikely this week but... if it happens, I've added a 66.80 Partial Profit Level accompanied by a 66.12 Pullback Buy level; see below and happy trading!

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2/1 Update: Update to yesterday's volume chart, prices did make a run for the target at the 65.64 high volume breakdown level; I believe prices will continue working on this level today/tonight. If we see a move above 65.64 by tonight, then a move up to a new high by end of the week would not surprise me. Regardless, I am still patiently waiting for a breakup higher but hopefully we'll see a break up short term and take advantage of the 66.80 Partial Profit level.

Good trading all!

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2/1 Update: Heading into Friday's Asian session prices are continuing to show strength; and I am not looking for a test of 66.8-67.29; Notice the small blue boxes, they show prices attempting to find higher support but failed twice. Looking left, it's possible that the failure is the same 66.13 level that prices bounced at in 2014. Assuming this, I am looking at somewhat of a reversal of the 2014 pattern; and overall, still looking for our 68/69 target to play out; I think by the third week of February.

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2/3 Update: *****UPDATE TO TRADING CHART*** SHORT MODEL MOVED UP TO 68.18

Well Friday's scenario did not play out at all the way I'd hoped... However this has not changed my view. Prices showed support at the bottom of the 64.62-69.37 trading range and I am still looking up for 68/69 level supply.

I have moved the Short Model level up to 68.18 - please refer to the chart below. Also, I I was upset with my self for not remaining aggressive with staggers, with all of the nice sideways swings that we missed by not staggering, that I've modified I have 3 Partial Profit levels above current price, in the event we see more sideways action on the way up. So again, no changes to my view; but but I've moved the Short Model up 30 cents to 68.18:

Đã hủy lệnh:

Well, needless to say that unfortunately this trade is closed out... I was going to close it if we saw a daily bar close below 63.00 and it was an ugly day of scaling out as prices travelled far below that level . More updates to come, after I spend a hundred hours re-analyzing and finding where my big miss was.