There are two likely outcomes from what the accumulation below $46 for 15 weeks is telling us.
You can count 15 weeks of time that touch the $46 price level across this chart in the large white box labeled "ACCUMULATION". Once we have broken free of that accumulation, which happened two weeks ago with the range entirely above the $46 level, it sets the stage for a 15 weeks total of advance and "distribution" to balance out the market.
The price range that we see around $46 includes a rally high to near $52 and a drop near $39 for a nearly $13 price range. It will likely take a $13 rally from $46 to peak out the market in the advance.
The ideal way to enter the market at this late-stage of the game is enter on weakness to the levels I have shown on the chart and target the conservative or aggressive upside targets listed also.
This is all mechanical and not-subjective and provides time and price targets as shown.
Look for large price corrections to provide excellent entries for long-side trades.
October 19, 2016 2:51PM EST
The 15 week mode didn't hold on the pullback and the first stop was hit. The lower entry was about as close as you can get to a stop, but the crude market didn't really hold the important level of support that you would expect to hold if the market were in healthy shape. What we can conclude is that the market is neutral here and will need some time to give us a new signal by spending an entire week either above or below the "mode" as labeled.
If you don't mind using wider stops, you can just stay long, but I put the stop here at 1 average weekly range below the mode, which is close. You can use a stop that is wider by another $2 and use the same exit target.
Tim September 4, 2018 12:06AM EST