May WTI CL K Long

Feb 17 18:00 AEDT
March Futures expire next week hence I am using "K" May 17.
As at Feb 7 Net Long CoT Managed Money stood at 360k open
interest. (Source CME Group)
I commented on the Weekly Chart last week, but thought
I would add my view on the Daily, since I am now long oil.

I believe this chart shows a bull flag on the late Nov 2016 rise.
I have an up sloping channel, with support at 53.10, 53.43 and 53.74.
The 53.10 support is formed from the breakout and now re-test on
the Jun and Oct highs.
The lower flag boundary met good volume on Feb 8 .. 10 as did Jan 11.
The last four displayed bars is consolidation of that volume push,
and at the time of writing this my 53.50 area is holding.
I have observed that breakouts generally never reach their last extrema,
but commence mid channel, therefore I will accept a move down to
my marked 53.10 line and add positions at my support levels.
The long upper pins (Dec 12 and Jan 3) indicate heavy selling pressure,
but validates that boundary as a resistance level and profit target.
A valid Flag upside breakout will add $8.30 targeting $60+
from the Flag low ... whatever that turns out to be.
It then needs to take out the 54.76 and 54.97 pivot points.
So this is contrary to the current bearish view, but that is my current view and
... just my 2c worth

Bình luận:

Hello Traders and followers,
We have now broken out to the upside of my bull flag boundary and first swing pivot is within sight (54.76) and clearing this hurdle then sets up 55 (again).
My red (black) bar of Feb 24, looks like a breakout retest at this point, so I intend to add long in the next market.
Hedgies have added more longs and producers have closed (:= Inventory awaiting pick up/shipment).
Otherwise it is hurry up and wait
... just my 2c worth

Bình luận:

Hello Traders and followers
CoT update: Feb 28
Net Managed Money Open Interest Table:
Longs 429,168 (Feb 28: 448,846) := -20k
Shorts 60,566 (Feb 28: 43,518) := 17k
Net 368,602 (Feb 28: 405,328) := -37k 10% closure and OI has dropped 100k

Producer Table:
Shorts 661 vs 665 vs 703
Longs 331 vs 323 vs 384

May has tested $53 and held (for the moment).
At the time of writing it is an inside day/ spinning top at .43
I added to my Long position today.
MY SL is now the pivot low at $52.86
Even at this level it is still within the flag boundary, but I don't feel like nursing it to $52
There are issues brewing on the horizon which will catalyst a move.
Patience and confidence ...
... just my 2c worth
PS: STO.ax is in the buy zone

Bình luận:

CoT update: Mar 14
Net Managed Money Open Interest Table:
Longs 383,767 (Mar 7: 429,168) := -45k
Shorts 128,947 (Mar 7: 60,566) := 68k
Net 254,820 (Feb 28: 368,602) := -114k 31% closure and OI has INCREASED to 2.4m ???

Producer Table:
Shorts 674 vs 661 vs 665 vs 703
Longs 190 vs 331 vs 323 vs 384
Ok, now I am confused! and I needed to wait til now to get the latest report to try and make sense of this.
Based upon the CoT Tables Producer shorts have increased (fwd sold) and
producer longs have decreased for a net increase of circa 154 short positions.
Ok producers think future prices are lower and have sold.
Managed money has closed (only) 114k positions - think future prices may not be lower.
But open interest has climbed to an all time high, despite a $US 5 drop!!!
So this suggests it was not the OI behind the price drop! as both reportable longs and shorts have moved (all time) higher.
My interpretation: (Some) Hedgies have bailed because producers closed out = increased inventories. Producers have sold more forward! (price pressured and with more time I could calc this into barrels but approx. 674k barrels @ 42k gallons vs production 36m OPEC and 9m US b/d or 15 days product ... if they hedge ... perhaps not that much).
So why is OI higher when $5 down does not tidy this up ???? Spreads are also much higher - so they are rolling forward ? (Abt 1.9m each for the swap dealers - normal, and money managers - down.)

Chart: The sell-off hurt and left me battered and (ego) bruised.
Now for round 2 - next week.
Candle of Mar 17 is an inside day doji = indecision and possible change in trend.
Previous 3 bars were up so this suggests Monday down. Pins suggest rejection at both $50 and $48 so expect range bound until an event.
Longer term (weeks) I expect a rebound (close) towards $50.50-$50.85
So I will buy dips, and sell into the longer time frame.
I welcome and encourage views on my tables to help make (fundamental) sense of this market.
Thank you for your interest.
... but just my 2c worth ...