As for the formation of the DAX, it seems to enter slowly in the final phase of a double zig-zag correction. It finished the initial ABC formation completing W of the double zig-zag, soon it will finish the X phase, that is also a an ABC formation and I expect another decline as the Y phase, that I guess will be another ABC formation. The price target is 13 000.
@eduardtgv, I guess yes, that is the level where the price movement of the present rally will approximately equal the rally between April 4th and 18th.
DAX-Trader
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I agree. The 13,000 level is where all the people who bought in from August 2017 to February 2018, who have only been disappointed by the DAX, finally have a chance to get out without a loss. This, in itself, will make the 13,000 level a strong resistance. It will not break in the next few days, or more likely, weeks. After that, yes, there is a chance that the DAX continues going up, but I believe the longer we move sideways at 13,000, the more likely it is that buyers will get impatient and move their money into other securities.
With quantitative easing coming to an end und the seasonal effects after the summer, I think 11,000 - 11,300 is a reasonable mid-term target. Your (c)(Y) is, in my humble opinion, a month or two too early, but otherwise I see it just as you do. Let's hope that we are right. I am holding onto an Option with a Knock-Out value of 13,250, hoping for a massive 800% win in case of a drop to 11,000.
palicska
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@DAX-Trader,
I misstyped the target. I meant 11 300 level, that is a 0,5 Fibonacci level of the previous (3) wave. The correction from November reached a reasonable fibo level, but the duration is not enough compared to the 500 day rally. So I guess your 11 000 price target is plausible.
zhangtingban333
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@DAX-Trader, I don't understand what you mean, but the trader who shorted at 13000 was disappointed, because he didn't break the low of September 2017, and there was a very strong rebound, and some of the chips that didn't make sense would come out. But at the moment, there is not much to break through. The empty fill that has been thrown has been replaced by new shorts. Do you think this understanding is consistent with your statement?
DAX-Trader
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@zhangtingban333, I think we are talking about different things. People who went long between August 2017 and February 2018, were hoping to see movement towards the 14,000 level. After the sudden drop in February, many were left with losses. Psychologically, people tend to hold on to losing securities and wait for the big turnaround and make a win. Its not always logical, but thats how it is. So, all those people waiting for the DAX to come back up to 13000 so that they can close without a loss, they place "sell" orders at 13000ish. That is what makes the 13000 level a line of resistance. That is what I meant to say.
Yesterday we punched through it, so it the resistance was not as much as I thought. We corrected today, but it seems as though we might go higher next week (which I did not expect).