James-Fisher
Giá lên

Merkel's Win is European victory?

TVC:DEU30   Chỉ số DAX
So, I was gonna publish this idea last week, but then I kind of got busy with all the work and stuff; also, this channel is my personal channel from another one which is for work.
So, Germany's election went well, but the number of far-right bumped up and scared off investors as we can see from a sharp decline in the past week of EURUSD             - bounced up a bit now. However, European stocks did not seem to care any of those stories about the far-right or whatever that has been going on in the media because, frankly, the indices all over Europe have been rising steadily for a month due to stronger economic data and central bank's tone on its monetary policy . Basically, stronger fundamentals are what giving the European markets the momentum it needs. We should be able to see this bull cycle for a while as shown by the graph - I chose DAX             to represent Europe because the rise of the European indices have been mostly contributing by the DAX index             this time. However, EURUSD             should be closely monitored as an appreciation could hurt an export industry of the Europe which could worsen the economic condition in the future.
In a daily time frame chart, as you can see, this latest mark up cycle started since early September and it was even clearer when the price was able to break out of the downtrend line. Since then, the price has done nothing, but up and could soon hit its prvious high at 12947. xx             . Moreover, Fisher transform is showing a great strength in the index as it has, again, recently made a golden-cross and is moving toward it prvious resistance at 4.41 which I believe could be the point where the index hits its previous resistance that I mentioned as well (12947. xx             ).



In a weekly time frame, this is just the way I like it, The candle closed at high - suggesting strong sentiment - and Fisher transform crossed up at a really low zone. This is like the most favorable condition for trading. Also, Fisher transform in a week time frame has just recently made it above zero which suggests that there is still a plently of room for an upside. So, even there's a bumpy ride in the day time frame, but I think if week time frame is still like this; it is very likely that the index could go up even higher than my target.



One quick note though is to monitor closely the monetary policies from both ECB and FED.
Đóng lệnh: dừng lỗ: DAX is weaker than I expected which is not a good thing at all. This could be due to great economic activities eventhough that's a good thing, but it could mean tightening monetary policy since CPI is getting to close to the target.
thx,
i'm on the same way :-)
Phản hồi
@Jour, nice :)
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