This "trading idea" is published to provide unbiased and accurate data as available and additional information about stockmarket, investor and traders bias. This trading idea is not published to predict any result about the upcomming election in France or Netherlands.
Trader can use this information to be up to date and to compare the market bias with latest polls.
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FEB 25 2017: What you need to know about the election:
The first round of the 2017 French presidential election will be held on 23 April 2017. Should no candidate win a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates will be held on 7 May 2017.
Incumbent president François Hollande of the Socialist Party is eligible to run for a second term, but declined to do so on 1 December 2016. Benoît Hamon won the nomination for the Socialist Party in the presidential primaries on 29 January 2017.
According to opinion polls, François Fillon for The Republicans and Marine Le Pen for the National Front led in the first round of polling in 2016 and the start of 2017. By late January and early February 2017, a shifting and tightening of the polls began, with Emmanuel Macron for the new En Marche! organization potentially making the second round. Polls for the second round of voting suggest either Fillon or Macron would beat Le Pen and that Macron would beat Fillon. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017
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FEB 25 2017: Divergency
The Market Consesview until Feb 22nd was that Marine LePen is going to win the first round by a simulated probability of 93%. Quote: France’s far-right National Front (FN) movement has never seemed closer to power. In first-round polling, Marine Le Pen, the party’s leader, is now comfortably ahead of her likeliest rivals, Emmanuel Macron and François Fillon. Mr Fillon is embroiled in scandal over payments to his wife and children for what critics call fictitious work. And Mr Macron’s description of French colonial stewardship over Algeria as a “crime against humanity” while visiting the North African country did not do him wonders at the polls. Quote: economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/02/daily-chart-20
FEB 20 2017 Bond Traders Sentiment highly bearish as well.
Bond Traders Are Placing Euro-Breakup Bets Again
Quote: by Stephen Spratt Hidden under the surface of European bond markets, traders are placing bets that will pay out if the risks in the euro zone severely escalate. Markets across the continent have started to price in the increased potential for anti-euro candidates to win elections in France and Italy. Recent positioning in German and Italian bonds are hedges against a blow-up in the risk of a breakup in the common currency, said traders in London and New York, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Six-month German securities have rallied more than benchmark tenors this month and open interest in two-year note futures has surged, suggesting investors are building up long positions in assets that are the closest to cash in terms of safety. The yield spread between Italian low- and high-coupon bonds has widened as traders bet against the latter, which would fall much more if the country’s creditworthiness is called into question. Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/euro-zone-political-risks-lead-to-subtle-hedges-in-bond-markets
Quote: Selling pressure on French bonds ebbed on Thursday, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond back below 1 per cent, as the prospect of a centrist alliance in the country’s presidential election eased anxiety that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win.
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FEB 25 2017: Bond Market reacts quickly - Yields dropped. Available Information showing that again huge bets of oversea investors are betting against France (and Italy). The market reaction is showing clearly, that investors got cought on the wrong foot and start to cover their short positions.
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FEB 25 2017: New polls showing that the gap between LePen and Macron is narrowing for the first round of election.
FEB 24 2017: Todays Opinion polls for the first round of voting
FEB 25 2017: Trump backfires European Far Right Wing Parties
What Analysts and Traders might have underestimated is that Europeans have diffrent view about Donald Trump than Anglo-Americans have. Trumps disapproval rate in Europe is arround 80% now. All far right party leaders supporting Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The fears about Trump and Putin are rising now - same time fears about refugees or globalistion falling behind.
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FEB 25 2017: Fact´s vs. Traders Investors
FEB 18 2017 "The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections"
Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling. “The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source: ft.com/content/0f1fdff6-f469-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608
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FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security
FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely. twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/835325771858251776
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FEB 25 2017 France's Macron raises curtain on election alliance to beat Le Pen
France's presidential race took a new turn on Thursday as independent Emmanuel Macron raised the curtain on a partnership with veteran centrist Francois Bayrou to help him beat the far-right's Marine Le Pen. "Political times have changed. We cannot continue as before. The National Front is at the gates of power. It plays on fear," Macron said, referring to Le Pen's once-shunned party. Source: reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN16208I
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FEB 25 2017 France's Hollande fires back at Trump over Paris comments
France's Hollande fires back at Trump over Paris comments French President Francois Hollande fired back at Donald Trump on Saturday after the U.S. president remarked in a speech that a friend thought "Paris is no longer Paris" after attacks by Islamist militants. Hollande said Trump should show support for U.S. allies. "There is terrorism and we must fight it together. I think that it is never good to show the smallest defiance toward an allied country. I wouldn't do it with the United States and I'm urging the U.S. president not to do it with France," Hollande said.
FEB 26 2017: Quote: What you need to know about the French presidential election Populist Marine Le Pen is favourite to win the first round the French presidential election, but who she may meet in the second round is still unclear. DW has rounded up the best content to keep you informed. Source: dw.com/en/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-french-presidential-election/a-37650113
FEB 26 2017: What´s right now is not in any discussion and what might change the pre-election sentiment is that Le Pen might loses immunity over this fraud case. This could change markets sentiment for some days even it might not change the elections result.
FEB 2016: Market Fears: Quote: Paris (AFP) - With the polls narrowing and one of her main rivals embroiled in an expenses scandal, far-right leader Marine Le Pen could feasibly become French president in May, senior politicians and commentators say. At the headquarters of her National Front (FN) party in Nanterre outside Paris, officials believe the same forces that led to the Brexit vote in Britain and Donald Trump's victory in the United States could carry Le Pen to power. Source: yahoo.com/news/yes-le-pen-could-win-france-025411227.html
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The Post above is from FEB 26 2017, the article from Feb. 24th.
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FEB 26 2017: Macron would beat Le Pen in French presidential runoff: poll World3 hours ago (Feb 26, 2017 09:54AM ET) Quote: (Reuters) - Independent French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron would beat far right leader Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election with 61 percent of the vote, according to an Odoxa/Dentsu-Consulting poll on Sunday. Source: investing.com/news/world-news/macron-would-beat-le-pen-in-french-presidential-runoff:-poll-462212
FEB 28 2017: France's Marine Le Pen may be losing election momentum — and investors like it
Qoute: Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming France's next president may be slipping and investors are breathing a sigh of relief.
A poll released Tuesday by French firm Ifop showed the far-right candidate's lead over centrist Emmanuel Macron declining to just 1.5 percentage points. Another poll released by Opinionway showed Macron defeating Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. France holds two rounds of voting in presidential contests. French bond prices rose after the polls, bringing their yields closer in line with more steady German yields. The French 10-year note yield declined to 0.888 percent, narrowing its spread with the 10-year German sovereign yield to around 0.68 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. French 10-year yield in 2016 fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2017/02/1488299610_Untitled.png
FEB 28 2017: Another sharp loss for Wilders far right party PVV:
Todays numbers: PVV: 22 Seats likely (PVV: Geert Wilders far right anti-Muslim anti EU party) VVD: 22 Seats likely (VVD: Dutch Prime Minister Rutte)
Todays reading of 22 Seats (from 150) is the lowest number for Geert Wilders since 2015. In June 2016 Wilders PVV would had won 37 (!) seats. this is a loss of 15 seats or allmost 40%. Germany´s far right wing party AfD is showing exactely same numbers. In summer 2016 the AfD was noticed with up to 18 % of likely voters. Latest polls showing 8,5% or a loss of up to 50% of likely voters. The drops excallerates after Donald Trumps Inauguration on Jan. 20th 2017. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
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FEB 28 2017 MEPs vote to lift Marine Le Pen's immunity for tweeting violent Isil images
Quote: A Group of European members of parliament on Tuesday voted "overwhelmingly" to lift the immunity of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen for tweeting pictures of Isil violence. Ms Le Pen, 48, an MEP, is under investigation in France for posting three graphic images of Isil executions on Twitter in 2015, including the beheading of the American journal. Source:telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-angers-french-police-threat-purge-civil-servants/
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MAR1 2017: Dutch Prime Minster Rutte is taking the lead.
FEB 28 2017: Another sharp loss for Wilders far right party PVV:
Todays numbers: PVV: 22 Seats likely (PVV: Geert Wilders far right anti-Muslim anti EU party) VVD: 25 Seats likely (VVD: Dutch Prime Minister Rutte) The drops excallerates after Donald Trumps Inauguration on Jan. 20th 2017. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
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MAR 01 2017: Macron closing in on LePen. Market Consensus is that LePen is going to win the first round of election clearly.
MAR 01 2017: For German Readers. What you cab read today in SPON is what we are discussing here now for quite a while. Just read it ... m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/a-1136946.html
MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst
Quote: Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda. With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a Peil.nl poll published Sunday. "I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-populist-wilders-loses-ground-in-the-polls-as-trump-effect-comes-into-play-analyst.html
MAR 24 2017, French Election: Macron still leading. Macron: 26% LePen: 25%
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MAR 28 2017: JPMorgan: A Le Pen loss will be a win for European equities
Quote:
If far right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen loses the election, it will spur a "significant" surge of inflows into European stocks, JPMorgan said in a note Monday.
How significant?
JPMorgan estimated that a Le Pen loss will see at least 10 percent of assets under management flow back into the region's stock markets. It noted that since the beginning of 2016, around $100 billion has flowed out of the segment, according to EPFR data, marking up a loss of nearly 10 percent of assets under management. "We believe that these flows at least could come back into the region, should political uncertainty fade, in addition to any potential new net inflows," JPMorgan said. Some opinion polls have shown that Le Pen, leader of the far right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant National Front party, could be a top pick in the first round of voting in France's presidential election on April 23. A healthy majority of analysts and experts believe Le Pen, who wants to pull France out of the euro zone, won't win the second round of voting on May 7 if she makes it past the first. But fears abound over a potential dark horse Le Pen victory, in line with political surprises such as Brexit and Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win. That's spurred concerns of a potential French exit from the euro azone, dubbed Frexit, and even a possible breakup of the bloc. While JPMorgan noted that any "Le Pen loss" lap of inflows was likely to boost the euro, it didn't expect that would weigh on European stocks, which have benefited from a weaker currency. "We think a stronger euro would not be an impediment for regional equities and, in fact, believe the euro will turn positively correlated to euro zone equities, no matter the election outcome," it said. It noted that the euro is typically seen as a vote of confidence in the region. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/28/jpmorgan-a-le-pen-loss-will-be-a-win-for-european-equities.html
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MAR 28 2017: Opinion Polls first round
Macron 25,5% LePen 25,0%
The regional election in Germany (Saarland State) on Sunday March 26th 2017 showed a much higher number of voters than in the elections before. Voters cleary said, asked by Journalists and broadcased on tv, that they dicided to go this election to stop "any populism". What they mean but did not said in expressis verbis is to stop the far right populism. Same happened in the Netherlands and same happened in the USA. Hillary Clinton won the popular votes by a wide numbers of approximately 3 Mio. voters.
APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.
Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:
APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures
Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source: bild.de/politik/inland/frauke-petry/that-was-a-serious-challenge-51129132.bild.html
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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge
Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency. Quote: ft.com/content/bba626fa-0994-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council (CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format. The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/politics/steve-bannon-white-house-national-security-council/index.html
APR 05 2017 - Quote: Castro: Trump associates will end up in jail Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) says that if he was a betting man, based on the evidence he's seen that some associates of President Donald Trump will go to jail for their ties to Russia's meddling in the US election.Source: CNN Source: edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/04/04/castro-russia-investigation-going-to-jail-tsr.cnn
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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council (CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format. The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/politics/steve-bannon-white-house-national-security-council/index.html
APR 10 2017 Goldman Sachs recommends a market bet as elections loom in France Quote: France's presidential election is rapidly approaching, and Goldman Sachs is telling investors to stay cautious.The investment banking giant recommended Monday that investors short French bond futures expiring in June ahead of the contest, amid the possibility that anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Melenchon could stun pollsters with a win. Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/10/goldman-sachs-recommends-a-market-bet-as-elections-loom-in-france.html
FEB 25 2017: What you need to know about the election:
The first round of the 2017 French presidential election will be held on 23 April 2017. Should no candidate win a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates will be held on 7 May 2017.
Incumbent president François Hollande of the Socialist Party is eligible to run for a second term, but declined to do so on 1 December 2016. Benoît Hamon won the nomination for the Socialist Party in the presidential primaries on 29 January 2017.
According to opinion polls, François Fillon for The Republicans and Marine Le Pen for the National Front led in the first round of polling in 2016 and the start of 2017. By late January and early February 2017, a shifting and tightening of the polls began, with Emmanuel Macron for the new En Marche! organization potentially making the second round. Polls for the second round of voting suggest either Fillon or Macron would beat Le Pen and that Macron would beat Fillon.
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017
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FEB 25 2017: What you need to know about the election:
The first round of the 2017 French presidential election will be held on 23 April 2017. Should no candidate win a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates will be held on 7 May 2017.
Incumbent president François Hollande of the Socialist Party is eligible to run for a second term, but declined to do so on 1 December 2016. Benoît Hamon won the nomination for the Socialist Party in the presidential primaries on 29 January 2017.
According to opinion polls, François Fillon for The Republicans and Marine Le Pen for the National Front led in the first round of polling in 2016 and the start of 2017. By late January and early February 2017, a shifting and tightening of the polls began, with Emmanuel Macron for the new En Marche! organization potentially making the second round. Polls for the second round of voting suggest either Fillon or Macron would beat Le Pen and that Macron would beat Fillon.
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017
The first round of the 2017 French presidential election will be held on 23 April 2017. Should no candidate win a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates will be held on 7 May 2017.
Incumbent president François Hollande of the Socialist Party is eligible to run for a second term, but declined to do so on 1 December 2016. Benoît Hamon won the nomination for the Socialist Party in the presidential primaries on 29 January 2017.
According to opinion polls, François Fillon for The Republicans and Marine Le Pen for the National Front led in the first round of polling in 2016 and the start of 2017. By late January and early February 2017, a shifting and tightening of the polls began, with Emmanuel Macron for the new En Marche! organization potentially making the second round. Polls for the second round of voting suggest either Fillon or Macron would beat Le Pen and that Macron would beat Fillon.
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017