On Thursday night, February 1th 2018, bloomberg.com published a stunning interview with Luigi Di Maio. The leader of Italians 5 Star Populist Movement made a clear statement: If ever the 5 Star Movement would win the upcomming Italian Election on March 4th 2018, they will support Italian Banks as much as necessary. This was a suprisingly, but absolutely clear statement.
A few hours later bloomberg.com again published another interview. The world largest hedgefonds BRIDGEWATER with 160 Bn AUM increased its bets against Italy up to 3 Billion Euro. On Thursday morning, the Italian stockmarket opens higher on the Di Maio interview. Bridgewater would add more losses to it´s multi billion dollar bet against Italy if stockmarkets would go higher. Than later in the afternoon, the hell starts when sell orders flodded European stockmarkets and spilled over to US Markets even US starts trading with gains.
Since then stockmarkets crashed down - and no one knows whats really happened. If stockmarket prices now might go up again rocket straight to the levels where they come from, than we might get more evidence about what has happened.
Anyway:
According to new European Regulation each shortseller needs to publish same day any short position, if ever they might be higher than 0,5% of outstanding shares. So keep in mind: 0,5% doesn´t sounds large or big. But its huge. A shortposition in 0,5% size in Germany´s DAX is equal to on or two full trading days full turnover. The Federal Gazette shows clearly, that Bridgewater shortet the most heavy index weighted DAX stocks by more than 2 full avarage trading days volume. AND AGAIN: BRIDGEWATER shorted only the most heavy weighted Stocks in the DAX, also some in the Netherlands, France, Italy and Spain. All those stocks dragging down European Indices first. The Momentum was high enough to overturn dominoes. Panic and confusion followed and finally no one has a clue what´s going on. Until now.
So - now read this multi-perspective view wich was published here:
And after checking all the facts once more he forwarded it to Germany´s Largest Financial Newspaper, The Handelsblatt.com. The newsdepartment published this story several times, each on page one:
Now watch the amazing Chart of Banca Intesa Sanpaolo, beating all negative prophecy from Ray Dalio:
Ray Dalio is shorting the best DAX 30 stocks wich having record revenues, record dividend payouts and beeing in an goldilocks stage of the economic cycle. And guess what: Bridgewater is still fully short with an unchanged shortpositon. So guess what´s going to happen next week.
And now watch, how this story goes arround the world.
Now we can calculate our risks. The risks are shortterm on the downside (for shorttrades) and not for long trades.
Please click on each chart to load comments, facts & figures:
TOTAL SA vows - unexpected - a huge 5 bn Euro stock buy back program end of last week. Bridgewater is net short 1,1 billion in TOTAL SA wich means this is Bridgewaters largest shortposition.
Allianz stock repurchase programm was vowed before and is still running. Allianz is going to buy back own stocks for 2 bn Euro. This is 2,5 times more than bridgewaters net short position in Allianz. Munic Re also vowed last year a stock repurchase program. Update will be added next days here.
European stocks bounce back, as investors shake off US inflation data
The euro area economy maintained a healthy growth pace at the end of last year, paving the way for another robust performance in 2018. U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected, sparking fears over inflation. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.5 percent in January. Volatility in the region followed the much-anticipated U.S. inflation data, which came in above expectations. cnbc.com/2018/02/14/europe-markets-seen-higher-amid-earnings-and-economic-data.html
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update: Follow the history of headlines - it´s self explaining. The headlines are showing, how long even Zerohedge needs to understand, what´s going on and how huge the short is (fo a single hedgefonds - and for European Stockmarkets). There are also now traders starting to buy what Dalio sold. And they are right in stocks like Airbus wich made a new all time high on Friday, January 16th.
It's Dalio Versus Everyone Else as Money Flows to Europe
I’m surprised. That’s a big bet. Dalio and his team are very confident,” said Rick Herman, managing director of asset allocation who helps oversee about $30 billion at BB&T Institutional Investment Advisors Inc. “That’s definitely out of consensus. European stocks are cheaper, and they also have stronger earnings growth.” bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/02/26/it-s-dalio-versus-everyone-else-as-money-flows-to-europe-stocks
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Just to compare: US-Investors sold assets for 41 Bn USD in a full month. BRIDGEWATER sold stocks for at least 22 Bn USD just within a few days only. Same time Europe’s Stockmarket is much smaller than the US Stockmarket.
„Investors staged a near-record exodus from US stocks in February
Just to compare: US-Investors sold assets for 41 Bn USD in a full month. BRIDGEWATER sold stocks for at least 22 Bn USD just within a few days only. Same time Europe’s Stockmarket is much smaller than the US Stockmarket.
„Investors staged a near-record exodus from US stocks in February