It should be imminently clear what the Dax is up to. Our base case is the black path. We therefore still forecast a brief spike to the downside before the rally continues. Please be aware that the orthodox top of our black count is at the (a)-label around 12,950. This basically means that an impulse to the downside does not necessarily need to mark a lower low than what is labeled as the d-wave of the expanding triangle.
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The Dax should reverse to the downside immediately if there is really an expanding triangle in wave b.
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The idea has been amended on December 20th. Please refer to our Dax idea from Dec. 20.