Did anyone notice that the Covid19 Crash of 2020 fell to the level where Trump was elected back in November 2016?
I thought it would be interesting to use the "bars pattern" tool to copy the US Presidential Election Year price action of the DJI Dow Jones Industrials and paste it to the end of 2019 to see how we are doing compared to the last 4 elections. I'll add some more after I publish this.
I hope you can find patterns in price action to help you find insights into market opportunities. Every day I am searching for ideas in the Key Hidden Levels Chat room and posting them as I see them.
Excellent observation. Is there any way to make 2020's pattern stand out a little better against the others?
timwest
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@jjvalentz, I think you can "make it mine" and then alter it the way you want also. See if that works for you. I have this one set up with "multi-time period charts" with daily and weekly ranges showing.
BF85
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very interesting!!
thanks
zamritumidi
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jrothlander
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Yeah, I have been thinking about this was well. Not so much as a Trump effect, but just an election year effect. It is an interesting pattern. I think what we need to consider is that 18K back in 2016 was the record, it went from 18K to 28K from 2016 to 2020, in about 3.5 years. Then covid hit and we fell back to 18K in March. Then in just 5 months it has recovered back to 28K. I think that shows we have a strong economy. The original pattern of growth from the 2016 election to 28K took about 3 and a half years but after covid, it only took a few days over 5 months (March 23 to Sept 2) to recover. So, my take away is, if we get a crash during the election, which is what people typically expect, it will quickly recover.
Presidential elections can cause people to do some pretty emotional things. Pretty hard to predict what a second Trump term or a first Biden term might do to people's emotions and how that will effect the market. But I think how ever low it might fall, and I know it will fall, history shows us that it will quickly recover.
It would be interesting to compare a change of administration patterns to incumbent reelections. Since we are looking for emotional effects, you think there'd be a pattern to it. Ignoring my own political opinions, I think if an incumbent is reelected investors know what to expect. There's less fear of the unknown and less emotions to effect the marketing. Or, if you have an admin that is really anti-business, anti-capitalism, maybe a new admin would boost confidence in the markets. But either way, history tells us that we should see a drop at this point, but it will recover in a few months.
My concern is that there's so much more to it than just the election, that we might be looking at the effect as the emotion of an election, when it may be something totally different, like the real estate crash in 2008.
meistertan
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@jrothlander, I concur with you that the economy was exhibiting "strength" for the last quarter and a half thanks to the USD5T fiscal injection, however that appears to be in the rearview mirror. Who presently believes that we are going to see a deal for the next 3 months? Anyone's optimism would be a better yardstick.