When we compare our current DOGE position with the last pump which peaked in May of 2017 we notice a few interesting things based on the , , , wave counts. and candles.
DOGE's has peaked will be dropping soon. It has spent too long in the overbought zone above 70 and needs to consolidate to gain strength. Typically, two major bounces above 70 are a best case scenario for a coin. DOGE is the exception and has demonstrated that it can handle up to 6 bounces before down turning.
2017 Historically: DOGE reached into the overbought zone 5 times over the course of April and May 2017 pump (with two other points very close). The was around 51.
Now: DOGE has spent much more time in the overbought zone during this current wave. It has had two definite peaks, but it is resetting to an of around 65. This may not give it room to continue bouncing. A break in this support could signal a continued downtrend.
DOGE's follows a great pattern to follow on these pumps. It shows a steady climb, double crosses on the way up, and "snaps through" at the top to signal a downtrend. When there is a major "snap through" (lines directly cross like an X) at the top and the line (blue) crosses the signal line (red), DOGE begins its down trend. This is demonstrated historically in all pumps except for the June 2015 pump where the lines crossed a second time after the top before trending downward.
2017 Historically: The double crossed on the way up, and the histogram trended down after a major snap through.
Now: We already saw the double cross on the way up, and the histogram is beginning to trend downward. I appears that the is setting up for a snap through, but we need to confirm that it will actually happen.
DOGE's can help up define our position over the longer term. I am using a 9 bar on the chart. We can using this to help find our wave counts later.
2017 Historically: The formed peaks during each wave and shows a great wave count.
Now: We are lacking clearly defined peaks. If our current downtrend continues we should get a peak and can use it to confirm or change our analysis.
4. Wave Count.
DOGE's wave counts recently showed a 5-3 pattern with a 12345 up and down. The clearness of the waves depends on the market makers conducting the pumps, amount of money moved, and can be hard to find in earlier pumps in 2016 (on the 1 day scale for example).
2017 Historically: We have a clean 12345 wave impulse with an correction. The graph is distorted though since waves 4 vs A and 3 vs B are not consistent. The helps us confirm the waves.
Now: We can find a rough 12345 wave movement on our last impulse wave. The doesn't help us confirm it as well as the last pump. If we are setting up for an correction, we could see a dip to around 70 Satoshis and a bounce to near 90 Satoshis.
DOGE's wave tops are highlighted with wicks.
2017 Historically: We can see the resistance and huge push back at 150 Satoshis with the three wicks.
Now: We did see a push back at 100 Satoshis with three smaller wicks. This signals the end of the wave, and an extended consolidation phase based on the , and indicators.
So, is the pump done? Looking at everything we have here, this wave is over. We topped 100 Satoshis, trending well with past pumps, and are ready for a correction. There is a possibility it could consolidate around 60 Satoshis and climb higher, but its unlikely at this time. Set stop losses to avoid getting stuck in this coin until the next pump
This is an idea of a future market movement. The current markets are highly volatile and can change at any moment. It is not a suggestion to trade, and I am not a financial advisor.
Looks like the next one is in the summer