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DOGE Wave Coming To A Close - Historical Analysis Vs Now

POLONIEX:DOGEBTC   Dogecoin / Bitcoin
DOGE has been working like clockwork. It has gone up and down several times in 2016 and one time last summer in 2017. Now it is finishing its most recent wave. The question remains - are we done with DOGE or is this part of a bigger wave trend?

When we compare our current DOGE position with the last pump which peaked in May of 2017 we notice a few interesting things based on the RSI , MACD , EMA , wave counts. and candles.

1. RSI .
DOGE's relative strength index has peaked will be dropping soon. It has spent too long in the overbought zone above 70 RSI and needs to consolidate to gain strength. Typically, two major bounces above 70 are a best case scenario for a coin. DOGE is the exception and has demonstrated that it can handle up to 6 bounces before down turning.
2017 Historically: DOGE reached into the overbought zone 5 times over the course of April and May 2017 pump (with two other points very close). The RSI support zone was around 51.
Now: DOGE has spent much more time in the overbought zone during this current wave. It has had two definite peaks, but it is resetting to an RSI support zone of around 65. This may not give it room to continue bouncing. A break in this RSI support could signal a continued downtrend.

2. MACD .
DOGE's MACD follows a great pattern to follow on these pumps. It shows a steady climb, double crosses on the way up, and "snaps through" at the top to signal a downtrend. When there is a major "snap through" (lines directly cross like an X) at the top and the MACD line (blue) crosses the signal line (red), DOGE begins its down trend. This is demonstrated historically in all pumps except for the June 2015 pump where the lines crossed a second time after the top before trending downward.
2017 Historically: The MACD double crossed on the way up, and the histogram trended down after a MACD major snap through.
Now: We already saw the double cross on the way up, and the histogram is beginning to trend downward. I appears that the MACD is setting up for a snap through, but we need to confirm that it will actually happen.

3. EMA .
DOGE's EMA can help up define our position over the longer term. I am using a 9 bar EMA on the chart. We can using this to help find our wave counts later.
2017 Historically: The EMA formed peaks during each wave and shows a great wave count.
Now: We are lacking clearly defined EMA peaks. If our current downtrend continues we should get a peak and can use it to confirm or change our analysis.

4. Wave Count.
DOGE's wave counts recently showed a 5-3 pattern with a 12345 up and ABC down. The clearness of the waves depends on the market makers conducting the pumps, amount of money moved, and can be hard to find in earlier pumps in 2016 (on the 1 day scale for example).
2017 Historically: We have a clean 12345 wave impulse with an ABC correction. The graph is distorted though since waves 4 vs A and 3 vs B are not consistent. The EMA helps us confirm the waves.
Now: We can find a rough 12345 wave movement on our last impulse wave. The EMA doesn't help us confirm it as well as the last pump. If we are setting up for an ABC correction, we could see a dip to around 70 Satoshis and a bounce to near 90 Satoshis.

5. Candles.
DOGE's wave tops are highlighted with wicks.
2017 Historically: We can see the resistance and huge push back at 150 Satoshis with the three wicks.
Now: We did see a push back at 100 Satoshis with three smaller wicks. This signals the end of the wave, and an extended consolidation phase based on the RSI , and MACD indicators.

So, is the pump done? Looking at everything we have here, this wave is over. We topped 100 Satoshis, trending well with past pumps, and are ready for a correction. There is a possibility it could consolidate around 60 Satoshis and climb higher, but its unlikely at this time. Set stop losses to avoid getting stuck in this coin until the next pump

Bình luận: Note:
This is an idea of a future market movement. The current markets are highly volatile and can change at any moment. It is not a suggestion to trade, and I am not a financial advisor.
Bình luận: DOGE could be on Wave A or 5 at this time. From a 1 hour time frame it looks like it could reach Wave 5. From a 1 day time frame, it shows rapid growth which may be unsustainable. I am concerned it may not have a Wave 5 since the price increased so rapidly (and based on the macro indicator historical analysis). History has demonstrated that DOGE often does not follow normal wave patterns as well. Be careful not to get stuck at the top.
Bình luận: If DOGE did have a Wave 5, it could look something like this. Time will tell if the pump is over or not. If Wave 5 does start, watch for a break out past the 95-97 range. Buying in past this point is added risk. Use trailing stops.
Bình luận: The Wave A reset is happening now. It may stop here or continue down to 55-60. Keep an eye on the MACD and RSI resistance (in addition to BTC). Next, we need to see if it will follow an uptrend to the 70-80 range. If it can complete that, there is a change for a Wave 5. If it fails to climb, a Wave C should follow to finish the pump.
Tự đóng giao dịch: People have been asking for updates for DOGE. I am currently out of DOGE since there are bigger fish to fry during this correction, so I won't be updating the idea. For a longer term perspective, DOGE may continue is downward path as traders swap their DOGE for BTC to get ready for the next market run summer '18. DOGE probably will not get pumped again until it reaches the buy in price for the dumpers to reload. We already saw a few huge wicks sell all the way down to 35 Satoshis, so it's time to look at other coins when the whales start closing positions.
Bình luận: Correction update for the wave reset.
Correction update for the wave reset.

Phản hồi
@jollygreen great analysis! there's supposed to be a final CNY pump this month for DOGE, but that seems unlikely

Looks like the next one is in the summer
Phản hồi
jollygreen MoonPickle
@MoonPickle, thanks for the comment! I'm looking forward to the next one :)
+1 Phản hồi
The weekly chart shows an RSI holding around or above 70 from MAR 17 - JUN 17. The current weekly high RSI has yet to hit 70 on Kraken (68 on Jan 3 18) during this run.
Phản hồi
jollygreen DeVanWONDERS
@DeVanWONDERS, That is a good RSI point on the 1 week interval. Here's three possible scenarios. 1 (yellow) - a pattern like the last May 2017 pump. 2 (blue) - a pattern like the June 2015 pump. 3 - something new we haven't seen yet!
Phản hồi
Dont think it will reach A and if it does it will still go up. thats what history teaches us
Phản hồi
jollygreen m1r00tj3
@m1r00tj3, it may have another wave in the cards if BTC allows it. We will have to wait and see how BTC's stability contributes to the price action. It will go up again. Either for Wave A or a Wave 5. I am concerned it may not be a wave 5 since the price increased so rapidly. History has demonstrated that DOGE often does not follow normal wave patterns as well. I would hate to get stuck at the top of this :D.
Phản hồi
m1r00tj3 jollygreen
@jollygreen, damn, i guess ur right. It would be terrifying to be stuck with this coin while it goes back to its old 20 sats.
Phản hồi
jollygreen m1r00tj3
@m1r00tj3, For sure! I would love to see another 166% gain (this Wave 5 would be higher than the last pump - see recent comments), but I am very conservative because of the bearish BTC trends. There's probably a bunch of people praying it continues to climb just so they can liquidate their 130+ positions from June 2017.
Phản hồi
Dogecoin still has una leg up LONG
Phản hồi
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