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Simon_says
24 Th08 2017 16:27

DXY 1W - Elliott waves 

TVC:DXY1W
U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC

Mô tả

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Analysis based on Elliott waves, patterns repeat itself: 1980s - 2000s - 2020s

Long term prediction on US Dollar Currency Index, bottom on the DXY will be reach around 2020s.

Until that time we will see slow move down.

We are in F -> G move, which means small upward move should happen in several weeks maybe months.

Nonetheless, in long term I predict strong down ward move G -> H then I -> J , K -> L and M -> N.

If my scenario will actually happen then price of XAUUSD will move very, very strongly up - long term prediction.

Move on XAUSD will be comparable to the one in 1980s: macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

DXY is getting weaker and weaker over the time as Asia, especially China is getting stronger.

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Trade is still active, since plot is analysed on weekly timeframe then it's not perfect.
I only wanted to show main trend of the DXY, to be more precise please follow analysis of daily traders.

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Price of DXY (G -> H ) will go down after December's rates hike and by the same XAUUSD will move up from recent consolidation point.

Rate hike odds: cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

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Everything is going on as expected, XAUUSD up and DXY down.

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So far I'm very happy with this analysis.

Interest rate hike carried by J.Powell on 21st March 2018 will push XAUUSD up (over 1400/oz) and DXY down ( I -> J). However, until that time XAUUSD may go temporarily down ~1300/oz.

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As predicted J.Powell hiked rates bbc.co.uk/news/business-43489661

XAUUSD moved up, DXY was pushed down.

I'm still waiting for I -> J move and XAUUSD over 1400$

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It's not a perfect prediction but DXY moved very close to that I predicted. Please remember that I made this plot on 8/24/17 - 9 months ago!!

Interest rate hike will take place on 13th Jun 2018, according to FED's Rate Monitor and FED Watch websites:
uk.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor
cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/

In both cases there is 100% for rates to be raised up to 1.75-2.00, that will push DXY down (I -> J) gold will go up.

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Hello again, I believe this analysis is still valid and DXY is going down... strongly down in the near future.

On the other hand, the famous "Dollar Milkshake Theory" was completely wrong and USDXY is not in a skyrocket/supernova mode!!

youtube.com/watch?v=8hTWDaDbhRQ&ab_channel=JeffreyWilliams
Trend AnalysisChart PatternsWave AnalysisdollarUSDDXYdollarindex
Bình luận
trade2win19
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Why would an interest rate hike strengthen gold/weaken the USD?
wxman99
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Great call from 8/24/17 !!!
Simon_says
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@wxman99, Thanks :]
nbn007
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bro thats gonna suck balls
Simon_says
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@nbn007, haha, why? What do you mean?
faronf
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does Simon Says further dollar weakness last week of November? Gold Bull beginning here?
Simon_says
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@faronf, I believe gold is building consolidation pattern for near future upwards movement. While DXY is testing lower lows and will move strongly down soon, but can't give you exact data.
faronf
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@Simon_says, you mean like this Simon?

lord_kinbote
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Are you long or short? GL mate.
No_structure
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GREAT! thanks.
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