Hi trader friends! The US Dollar Index rally from 2008 low to the December 2016 high is better counted as a long term upward retracement/correction in the 107 year bear market in the "Real Inflation Adjusted Value" of US Dollar. Why? Because much of the up move was corrective in nature, with many overlapping of the swing highs by the subsequent swing lows, except in the middle of the move *which is the only place this 8 year rally looked clean and impulsive. Therefore, until proven otherwise, I have to label the high in December, 2016. as a large "corrective" C wave top.
RISK: There is always the possibility that the many overlappy waves from the exact low in 2008, were a series of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, then a high Wave 3, and this current low is a huge Wave 4. However, it doesn't fit a well, not make sence with the massive quantatiative easing the FED has done, which, should eventually be a problem for the USD The move down since the 2016 high was impulsive, without overlapping of swing lows by the swing highs within the impulsive trend waves down, so I am going with the wave count I have.
CONDITION: We should see one more low to finalize large Wave 1 down. This would be followed by a corrective ABC corrective Wave II rally (if much at all). Then, the USDX will likely get crushed again, if this analysis is correct. Let's hope that I am wrong this time or the bounce is far greater than I have projected.
I have yet to complete the cycle analysis on the Dollar, but the EURUSD cycles suggest that the bounce in the USDX after this upcoming Wave 1 low may not be as strong usual for this length of wave down.
Our MASIC indicator that Austin created is overbought and looking like it wants to roll over to the downside. Plus, the CR Williams indicator has not turned green for new buy area yet. This fits well with the idea of one more selloff to the Wave V low of bigger Wave 1 down.
You will see that inverse Elliott Wave count along with cycles on the soon to be released EURUSD chart, with cycles! I really hope I have these wrong. I will flip my analysis if I find that I am. Until then, you'd better make provision by August to December of 2018, the latest, if you live in the USA or your country's money is pegged to the dollar.
Happy trading!
Michael Mansfield CIO,
RISK DISCLOSURE:
PAST TRADE OR ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING CAN BE VERY RISKY, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE GAINS AS WELL AS LARGE LOSSES.
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell a security, commodity, Forex , or crypto-token of any type. Whether you choose to trade based on our trading related posts, charts, videos and/or comments elsewhere, you trade at your own risk!
RISK: There is always the possibility that the many overlappy waves from the exact low in 2008, were a series of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, then a high Wave 3, and this current low is a huge Wave 4. However, it doesn't fit a well, not make sence with the massive quantatiative easing the FED has done, which, should eventually be a problem for the USD The move down since the 2016 high was impulsive, without overlapping of swing lows by the swing highs within the impulsive trend waves down, so I am going with the wave count I have.
CONDITION: We should see one more low to finalize large Wave 1 down. This would be followed by a corrective ABC corrective Wave II rally (if much at all). Then, the USDX will likely get crushed again, if this analysis is correct. Let's hope that I am wrong this time or the bounce is far greater than I have projected.
I have yet to complete the cycle analysis on the Dollar, but the EURUSD cycles suggest that the bounce in the USDX after this upcoming Wave 1 low may not be as strong usual for this length of wave down.
Our MASIC indicator that Austin created is overbought and looking like it wants to roll over to the downside. Plus, the CR Williams indicator has not turned green for new buy area yet. This fits well with the idea of one more selloff to the Wave V low of bigger Wave 1 down.
You will see that inverse Elliott Wave count along with cycles on the soon to be released EURUSD chart, with cycles! I really hope I have these wrong. I will flip my analysis if I find that I am. Until then, you'd better make provision by August to December of 2018, the latest, if you live in the USA or your country's money is pegged to the dollar.
Happy trading!
Michael Mansfield CIO,
RISK DISCLOSURE:
PAST TRADE OR ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING CAN BE VERY RISKY, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE GAINS AS WELL AS LARGE LOSSES.
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell a security, commodity, Forex , or crypto-token of any type. Whether you choose to trade based on our trading related posts, charts, videos and/or comments elsewhere, you trade at your own risk!