Yesterday I posted a neutral idea regarding the possible megaphone pattern in DXY. Today we printed a daily swing and the candle is holding by the close we couldn't erase it. RSI is turning down from the overbought levels. TSI is signing divergence. If price breaks back into the megaphone and later below 100.42$ market will realize in a short period of time that it was a failed breakout and we will be heading down to the lower trendline below 92.... The decline will be so steep that we might break down from the megaphone. A Megaphone Top is a relatively rare formation its shape is opposite of a symmetrical triangle. The pattern develops after a strong advance and usually consists of three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. This pattern reflects the last 2 years when bulls and bears were battling to gain in the US dollar index. Though bulls have been charging and driving the price new highs (2015.12.03. and last Friday) during the formation of the megaphone top, however, bears are exerting increasing influence on the price and causing it to set a series of lower lows (2015.08.24. and 2016.05.03.) . At the end the increasing volatility eventually creates a sense of uncertainty, leads to profit-taking, and deters some of the bulls from making any further commitments. The end of the story in most of the cases that price breaks down from the megaphone top.
NEW SHORT ENTRY Stop can be set above 102.
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The daily swing today:
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val_trader
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Hi, are you short now ?
Guybrush80
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does this rise deal with Thanksgiving day and Black Friday? :-) or not?
what will happen on Monday ?
mmmp12
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Almost hit SL, 102 was close :O.
VirtualFax
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Thanks for the usual high quality analysis
chartwatchers
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@VirtualFax, Next time I would like to post a low quality analysis when price goes immediately 200 pips to the predicted direction.
:)
VirtualFax
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@chartwatchers, your analysis might be advocating the opposite to the eventual stock move direction, but it's still always HQ. I'm yet to see LQ :)
As for the direction, people don't necessarily have to follow your suggestions. In fact, they are better have their own game plan if they care about their hard earned money...
RufusDawes
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I am leaning more towards a half cycle low, then onward towards a higher high to the end of December...
bertcoin
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Is there a stock/ETF or ETN that follows DXY closely? I haven't gotten into Forex yet.