If the first scenario ( , blue one on the chart) shows up we should see a retracement to about 7.9 or 8.7 usd (0.38 and 0.23 fib levels of the 3rd wave up) before a reversal comes. If I see a reversal on any of those levels I will start my trade. Target is set to around 12.5 usd if this scenario plays out (1.61 of the 3rd wave and 2.61 of the 1st wave)
If the second scenario (probably , red one on the chart) shows up we should see a down move that overlaps wave 1 - around 7.28 usd - and shows us we already had our wave 5. I dont think this scenario is very likely to happen because the 4th and 5th wave would have happen really quick and on a very small range, but I still consider it as a possibility because we did bounce at the 0.38 fib of the 3rd wave and formed a higher high at 9.56 (previously 9.25). On the first scenario Im considering all of this as wave 3.
In this second scenario we would also have the possibility of going higher right now - as the 5th may still be in play. I dont believe it will happen and on both ways of the second scenario (up right now or down to overlap wave 1) I wont be trading unless I get a very strong reversal (maybe if BTC skyrockets, who knows) and I would certanly be at least much more careful.
Im also keeping a bag Ive been accumulating the last few weeks for the long term. Im willing to hold it through years and under 1 dollar levels and that's why I'm accumulating right now. I ll keep some money to buy at lower levels (4 to 6 dollars, but hopefully wont come to that) but I think this whole uptrend that started on March 18th is the beggining of a broader 3rd wave, as the 2nd wave retraced to the 0.78 fib of the 1st wave and reversed there. Target for this could be around 30 usd (1.61 of the 1st wave) to 48 usd (2.61 of the 1st wave). If the price breaks under 3.8 usd it would invalidate this wave and would turn my bag into a very longer term investment. A risk Im willing to take, unless fundamentals change.
PS: Red scenario is a little bit to the left but the price touched this prices. Better to see that way.
stop at 7.2