Leozinho

5th wave for EOS?

BITFINEX:EOSUSD   EOS / Dollar
EOS has been doing great lately and I was a little surprised when I opened my EOS chart after a few weeks and discovered it has hit the exactly 1.61% of the first up move before taking a break from the impulse. Now Im very excited about possibly getting a 5th wave after the 4th wave correction ends but as Im worried about the possibility of a wave 4 have already happened and we are currently on a wave 5 makes me think I should be cautious before starting a trade here.

If the first scenario ( bullish , blue one on the chart) shows up we should see a retracement to about 7.9 or 8.7 usd (0.38 and 0.23 fib levels of the 3rd wave up) before a reversal comes. If I see a reversal on any of those levels I will start my trade. Target is set to around 12.5 usd if this scenario plays out (1.61 of the 3rd wave and 2.61 of the 1st wave)

If the second scenario (probably bearish , red one on the chart) shows up we should see a down move that overlaps wave 1 - around 7.28 usd - and shows us we already had our wave 5. I dont think this scenario is very likely to happen because the 4th and 5th wave would have happen really quick and on a very small range, but I still consider it as a possibility because we did bounce at the 0.38 fib of the 3rd wave and formed a higher high at 9.56 (previously 9.25). On the first scenario Im considering all of this as wave 3.
In this second scenario we would also have the possibility of going higher right now - as the 5th may still be in play. I dont believe it will happen and on both ways of the second scenario (up right now or down to overlap wave 1) I wont be trading unless I get a very strong reversal (maybe if BTC             skyrockets, who knows) and I would certanly be at least much more careful.

Im also keeping a bag Ive been accumulating the last few weeks for the long term. Im willing to hold it through years and under 1 dollar levels and that's why I'm accumulating right now. I ll keep some money to buy at lower levels (4 to 6 dollars, but hopefully wont come to that) but I think this whole uptrend that started on March 18th is the beggining of a broader 3rd wave, as the 2nd wave retraced to the 0.78 fib of the 1st wave and reversed there. Target for this could be around 30 usd (1.61 of the 1st wave) to 48 usd (2.61 of the 1st wave). If the price breaks under 3.8 usd it would invalidate this wave and would turn my bag into a very longer term investment. A risk Im willing to take, unless fundamentals change.

PS: Red scenario is a little bit to the left but the price touched this prices. Better to see that way.
Bình luận: Touch 0.23 fib, waiting for a reversal but I think we might go lower specially if btc retrace (currently around 7.9k)
Bình luận: broke first fib, waiting for the next support at 7.8 but I think the bottom will be below that, around 7.4
Giao dịch bắt đầu: opened long with 25% of the amount I want to trade at 8.5. touched 2nd fib. didnt reverse yet but im adding because i wanna be prepared in case btc explodes
Bình luận: EOSBTC starting to move, just added 25% more at 8.3
Bình luận: added the 50% i got left at 8.7, agressive but im taking the risks. first fib now working as support.
stop at 7.2
Bình luận: if we get more volume we may get to 9.5 resistance... passing this I ll be much more confortable with my position but everything going ok so far

Bình luận: been dumping since btc started to fall, hopefully a higher low will be formed on the short term and we will continue to the target. if not I will hold to my position and wait for a reversal with a stop at 7.2 where i would get an EW failure

Bình luận: formed a higher low and now a higher high but i think we got into an ascending wedge, possibly showing weakness on this bullish move... anyway we are getting false breakouts everywhere and my position is set on a longer term, im just holding and watching

Bình luận: Broke that wedge and now we are above the top of the 1st wave so I guess this is almost 100% confirmed as 5th wave, target is set to 12.3-12.7 usd but any strong reversal now could confirm the top of a wave 5, what im looking now is for a volume that either makes it hit the target or confirm a reversal to start closing my longs.

Bình luận: wow this is happening quick... at 11.60 there is a resistance (0.382 fib of the 1st broader up move last year) and if we get strong sign of reversal there I ll start closing my longs, probably 50%

Bình luận: I have sold 25% of my position at 11.4, I dont think this is a reversal yet but Im good with 75%. I think 12 is comming yet
Bình luận: closed 50% at 11.10. volume on lower time frame is making me worried.
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu: Closed 25% i got left at 11.4, I believe it can go higher right now but the whole market didn't retrace for like a week and im good with that range. About 30% from my buys at a medium price of 8.55
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