After looking at the ideas about ES, it seems the most clickbaity concept is a once-in-a-decade crash like March 2020. The ES is in an ascending wedge. That's the smaller view. The ES has been in many, many ascending wedges before. So a pullback or short-term downtrend is natural.
Let's look at the bigger picture. There are 9 support before even reaching 3350 which is about 10% from the high. Going through them all at once is not likely. You'll have a better chance being struck by lightning.
I've noticed that permabears keep repeating 1929. There is a huge difference between 1929 and today. That's the benefit of history. In 1929, the Federal Reserve didn't know what to do as it was only 16 years old at the time. In 1929, there was a great liquidity crisis. Meaning, there was a great lack of money supply. Available cash is the lifeblood of the stock market. Without it, the market tends to seize up. In October 2008, the Federal Reserve tried to inject liquidity into the markets, but it was already too late. Today, the Federal Reserve has the benefit of history. The Fed knows that liquidity needs to be injected early enough where the markets can recover. That's what happened in late March of 2020.
It worked. Since I come from the 2008 era, I didn't think it would work. Guess who feels stupid now? Me.
Nowadays, the Federal Reserve's repo operations have halted since July 2020. Treasury security operations have been reduced to near pre-March levels. Basically, since July 2020, the market has been largely on its own. After all, if you were part of the Federal Reserve, why would you waste your ammo when the markets are above the previous highs? It would probably make more sense if the market crashed more than 20% from the highs that the Fed would legitimately intervene.
What does this mean? It means that the rallies were not the Fed alone. In June 2020, there were over 600,000 new trading accounts for Q2. That's record-breaking actually. How many more accounts do you think opened since June? How many people do you think are waiting below at major supports?
I'm asking these questions because there is more to the market than the Federal Reserve.
There's also another difference between 1929, and that's the pandemic that still has no end in sight. I'm not a permabear, but I also consider myself a realist. While history has taught how to intervene, how often has it had to intervene with the amount it has, and appears to need again? How about the other countries and economies? The very products we rely on as a country are not coming from us here on our own turf alone-- with more lockdowns, even with a vaccine, the supply chain is disrupted yet again. With the market priced to have recovered at least somewhat by now without any issue of delaying the productivity, it's clear this isn't the case. When people and their stimulus checks dried up, so will the buyers, and the debt will mount and still no job. How about those protections put in place to prevent overextending credit?
I'm fortunate enough to have a job, but you know what I've noticed? No traffic. In one of the states with the lowest covid-19 infection rates, and I still see no traffic. I'm basing my opinion off what I see, not what I'm reading from home (not saying you are per se, just an observation that this market has no room to move up without buyers-- who are still not in full force after nearly a year).
Itsallsotiresome
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@PlsHelpMeThnx COVID news is now noise. Most people are tired of hearing about it. Sadly, it was used as a political weapon in the media. Most people figured that out already. Most bears underestimate how adaptable humans can be. Let’s say COVID gets worse. We already seen what that does for tech stocks. Money will find a home somewhere. It just doesn’t disappear... except if you’re trading against the overall trend.
Chicama
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@Itsallsotiresome, Covid is not noise - it's very real and many many people have died and or maybe even worse are going to be sick for a very long time. Plus it's mutating. The market's climbing a wall of worry....the question is;
I'm fortunate enough to have a job, but you know what I've noticed? No traffic. In one of the states with the lowest covid-19 infection rates, and I still see no traffic. I'm basing my opinion off what I see, not what I'm reading from home (not saying you are per se, just an observation that this market has no room to move up without buyers-- who are still not in full force after nearly a year).