btc_joe

The Rise and Fall of ETH Part 3 (The great bull trap)

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
6903 20 32
RSI broke down from trend. Price flirting with breaking the parabolic trendline . Could still get one more high to 2.618 ext. but if we start closing candles above there the idea is pretty much invalidated. This feels similar to the bitcoin             bull trap of early 2014 to me, could be wrong of course : )
Bình luận: broke the parabolic trendline...
Bình luận: 4h chart...looks like a head and shoulders pattern in the works:
Bình luận:
Bình luận: Hi all, last update was in the comments, was watching that rising wedge. Since it broke up that pretty much invalidated the bearish head and shoulders pattern and thus it was the clear sign I was wrong. What now is tough to say, definitely still a believer in this general idea, but the price can easily go higher first. There is strong resistance at the 2.618 fib extension so that's where I would expect this to reverse. If not perhaps ETH truly is going to into the stratosphere, but at this market cap relative to bitcoin and all the potential competition coming in for ETH, scaling problems, etc…I doubt it but who knows. Stubborn bear : )
Bình luận: Here we go, price at resistance now. I think that could be it for ETH...give or take. Probably depends on the bitcoin bottom being in. I think theres great potential for this to be the yearly top and if not at least good for a big drop.

Yes I could be wrong, be careful, blah blah blah. Is this time different? Is ETH about to overtake bitcoin? Anything is possible but its usually unwise to bet against the king. If you disagree feel free to long ETH : ) Anyway, Gluck! Most importantly have fun.
Bình luận:
Bình luận: Horizontal support seems to be holding well, and stoch rsi screaming for a bounce. Looking for it to become a right shoulder before the big drop down doe. Watch volume, should be weak.
Bình luận:
Bình luận: Considering the bounce in bitcoin (and negative correlation)...this right shoulder may be brief.
Bình luận: ...target reached. Beautiful.

Looks like the Coinbase founders were really upset about their $ETH value getting destroyed...they just announced support for ICO's in the future. Time for the exit pump? If not should prolly be good for at least a small bounce.

Bình luận: Indicators:
Bình luận: ETH/USD bounce beautifully off of support from 6 month ascending triangle earlier in the year, which also happens to be the .786 fib level. This level should hold at least for now, what happens if bitcoin makes new lows? Hmmm.
Bình luận: red trendline must have slipped out of wack, fixed it:
Bình luận: 3d chart...hidden bull divs erry where
Bình luận: Hmmm lots of hidden bear divs forming at the 200 MA on the daily chart...this could pull back around here. There is a bull flag on lower time frames...keep an eye on it. Daily may have more weight.
Bình luận: The price broke the flag on the 4h chart...seems we are at a pivotal point here. If we can break the channel--up to at least the .075-.08 range. But I think more likely we get a nice pull back here before higher.Yesterday ETHUSD broke its bear market channel, perhaps that was a hint of what comes next in BTC? If so btc could steal the show for a bit while alt/btc ratios pull back. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oSyDZHiw/Good luck!
Bình luận: chart link got messed up sorry, here:
Bình luận: kinda feels like most alts have interim topped...about to test the channel, if we break back below looking for the initial post. Price would have to break the local high to convince me the bull is back.
Bình luận: Seems like one more leg up (perhaps after some consolidation) then that may be all she wrote:
Bình luận:
Bình luận: Daily chart...RSI has been a great indicator to watch...hanging on by a thread:
Bình luận: ...here we go...if .08 falls watch out for a big drop.
Bình luận: Would you prefer the small hammer or the big hammer? What is the risk reward here? Gluck.
Bình luận: 2h chart...if we break below .00825 it could be the start of a larger move down.
We dropped from 0.075 to 0.065 2 weeks ago over the weekend and recoverered up to 0.084. How's this different?
Phản hồi
btc_joe RexItUp
@RexItUp, ETH/BTC has been in a bear market since June of 2017, so how is this entire rally different?

If it breaks .08 it's different because it's a resumption of the downtrend IMO and could ultimately lead to the price fully retracing this rally and going lower. Can 0.08 hold and we go to .009-.01 first before doing that? Sure, but the risk reward is down and I wouldn't count on it.
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Thank you so much for sticking with this idea. From watching the chart it sure feels like there's one more extension coming....but maybe not?
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RexItUp RexItUp
@RexItUp, I say this because EthUsd looks like it has a shot at $840-900, which would get us up around 0.09 or so.
Phản hồi
btc_joe RexItUp
@RexItUp, You are very welcome : ) Short term tough to say you could be right if it doesnt dump over next few hours. But IMO the reward is like .09 maybeeee .01, much bigger downside.
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Why is that going to be all she wrote again? Looks like Eth/BTC has just started correding as BTC separates for the first time.
Phản hồi
btc_joe RexItUp
@RexItUp, was always my expectation when this move began based on the technicals but the fundamentals would agree as well. Switching to a totally unproven mining algo, potential regulatory troubles, tons of competitors hitting the market stealing its attention...

What is more likely a lower high or ETH to overtake bitcoin? I've been wrong before but if ETH is going to overtake bitcoin (or anything else for that matter) than I must be a monkeys uncle : )
Phản hồi
RexItUp btc_joe
@btc_joe, This all makes sense. Do you think we just plummet down from here? If both BTC and Eth correct, the price will drop a bit more...then if BTC really takes off that's game over.
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btc_joe RexItUp
@RexItUp, possibly but I think more likely it could still go higher before the big drop.
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Ok. So you think it's got a bit further to drop before reversing and heading back up for a bit before dropping into the toilet when BTC makes its next run. Do I understand that correctly?
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