This chart captures my current analysis for ETH during the remainder of the Wave 4 correction and revises my prior counts.
If the trend continues, a dip down to the 200 support area, will mark wave (C) of C of 4 (technically "W" in Elliott Wave terminology because this correction is a combination, and not a simple zig-zag, or flat, or triangle). A healthy climb and retracement of the decline back to the 340 area marking "X", slightly extending the bounce off W that marked A of B of 4. Then a final deeper move back down to or into the support zone.
A more bullish alternative is that wave sub-move A of B of 4 is actually the "X" location. But that move was so quick, this is from where my hesitation arises. If that were the case, the approaching low in the 200 area, mark the "Y" conclusion of Wave 4. As long as this correction has drawn out, while it feels longer, it has only been a month.
Another continuin concern I have is the influence of BTC over the entire crypto currency space. There has been no resolution to the questions about whether a hard fork, the SegWit2x proposal, or other proposals will reach consensus prior to BIP148 activating August 1st. When BTC dives, the entire crypto currency space suffers, often more violently and at more extreme level of Beta. When BTC complete it's Wave III move, it dragged every other major crypto down with it, this was seen especially so during the decline to (A) of A of W and (C) of A of W for ETH. So if there are BTC problems, around August 1, as there is no "consensus" and instead the warring camping fight over BTC's future history, expect a third test of the Support Zone for Ether.
Hi, Did you buy at 200?
I'm worry it's not going to hold, I'm watching continuation patterns now.
RogueDave
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@veilkrand, I did, and I have a stop just below the lows. It sure looked like an overshoot capitulation. It was only a small position to put my money where my mouth is. If I stop out, I stop out.
But this correction is flummoxing my attempts to analyze it. :-)
GreateScott
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@veilkrand, killed it! used this chart to trade and went long at 181. great work
@RogueDave, how do you feel like it's holding up? getting the feeling that there's still a lot of money on the sidelines because people expected a better entry. look at volume and just thinking about how many shares I moved myself, I feel like there's more potential pent up fiat but how do you feel on it
RogueDave
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@GreateScott, It's easy to want to be bullish, and imagine cash on the sidelines. But remember, there are a lot of traders who bought higher, are underwater on their trades, and are happy to get out with a reduced loss, or at breakeven. Then there are a few, but an increasing number as time rolls on, that are now in a profitable trade, and might be tempted to book their profit. That all adds up to supply.
My big problem with providing the analysis, the way I want to do it, is that this descent has been really linear. Look at this trend line. The decline should be clearly going in a zig-zag, or a triangle, or what's called a flat. And it doesn't count correctly. So, for me as an Elliott Wave Analyst, it's extremely frustrating, as I've expressed to @veilkrand
@veilkrand, I'm in wait and watch mode. 2 primary reasons:
1. The entire crypto space is undulating and sloshing around as BTC's future regarding BIP148 (a UASF scheduled to activate Aug 1), SegWit2X (initially a softfork on Aug 1, and a deferred hardfork some months out IF it goes according to plan), and the mining community hardfork proposal, are undecided. If BTC goes up, so does the space. If BTC goes down, so does the space.
2. I cannot establish an Elliott Wave count I like that is supportive or indicates a bottom as being in for ETH. The exception might be, MIGHT BE a bounce off the channel bottom, which may be an expanding or reverse falling wedge. But right now I see NO reason(s) to be bullish.
Maybe bad news to BTC is good news for ETH, maybe bad news for BTC is good news for ETH. So far, Bad News for BTC is bad news for the prices of all major and many minor crypto. I cannot find a single coin to clearly, unambiguously trades on it's own.
@GreateScott, Short and sweet, to answer your question, we're here:
Bigger picture regarding analysis, I need to do a whole new ETH post for the revised wave count shown in Updates posted here:
At this point, ETH has no mojo. Even though BTC has rallied to near it's old high, ETH has failed to do so. This is pretty clearly due to the difference in wave cycle phase. My revised count is based up the older data that effectively advanced the count from a 3 to a 5, completing a larger cycle (1). ETH is now in wave (2). Boo-hoo, a terrible (2).
I'm worry it's not going to hold, I'm watching continuation patterns now.