So, right now I'm seeing so much bullishness formulate around the crypto market. Most of the time that's a good thing. But there seems to be this over-optimistic attitude a lot of people are having, calling for moon shots. This isn't just with Ethereum, it's with everything.
My 2018 BTC target is $3k and even I was getting pretty bullish here. And there is NOTHING wrong with that. We just need to consider all situations, both bullish AND bearish. What I see here, with not just ETH (but almost every major coin) is that all the hour timeframes are overbought. And even more importantly the 12 hour stoch AND RSI are both overbought. Though it looks like the daily may have room to run, we have to consider how overbought timeframes like the 3 hour RSI are right now. I have the bad feeling that when the 3 hour corrects, then it just causes a chain reaction on all indicators and we see a major price reversal in the market.
For ETH specifically, I think this party ends right around my previous target of $818, probably around $813 or so.
But showing the indicators, we have a massive hidden bearish divergence (white dotted line) combined with, so far, a bearish divergence (yellow line). Unless we pass $976, that hidden bearish divergence won't go away, and that's just not likely for now.
I'm just saying to consider taking profit, please at LEAST set breakeven or profitable stop losses. You do NOT want to turn a winning trade into a loss. I also wouldn't recommend entering on any trend line "breaks" right now. It's a little too risky. But only take this with a grain of salt. We have seen coins in the overbought region for long times.
As said before, very often investors take profits too early, or hold onto losses for too long. This is the grey area where it begins to get tricky. I'm a bit skeptical on the market as of now.
But I can tell you when we'll know ETH will have some type of pull back in the near future with just looking at the 10 minute timeframe on the next update.
My 2018 BTC target is $3k and even I was getting pretty bullish here. And there is NOTHING wrong with that. We just need to consider all situations, both bullish AND bearish. What I see here, with not just ETH (but almost every major coin) is that all the hour timeframes are overbought. And even more importantly the 12 hour stoch AND RSI are both overbought. Though it looks like the daily may have room to run, we have to consider how overbought timeframes like the 3 hour RSI are right now. I have the bad feeling that when the 3 hour corrects, then it just causes a chain reaction on all indicators and we see a major price reversal in the market.
For ETH specifically, I think this party ends right around my previous target of $818, probably around $813 or so.
But showing the indicators, we have a massive hidden bearish divergence (white dotted line) combined with, so far, a bearish divergence (yellow line). Unless we pass $976, that hidden bearish divergence won't go away, and that's just not likely for now.
I'm just saying to consider taking profit, please at LEAST set breakeven or profitable stop losses. You do NOT want to turn a winning trade into a loss. I also wouldn't recommend entering on any trend line "breaks" right now. It's a little too risky. But only take this with a grain of salt. We have seen coins in the overbought region for long times.
As said before, very often investors take profits too early, or hold onto losses for too long. This is the grey area where it begins to get tricky. I'm a bit skeptical on the market as of now.
But I can tell you when we'll know ETH will have some type of pull back in the near future with just looking at the 10 minute timeframe on the next update.
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Well that was quick. There's the break. BUT, I want to see if the other EMAs crossover.
Well that was quick. There's the break. BUT, I want to see if the other EMAs crossover.
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This is just a warning piece by the way. I just want you all to consider the possible outcomes here and the type of signals we are getting. There are still definitely signs of life. But I have seen some great analysts get screwed because they are trying to buy on trendline breakouts only to face rejection. I'm starting to see things that only typically happen in corrections. The market is very indecisive right now at these levels. Whichever side the market chooses, it will break that way hard. But let me show you all what I see on the daily chart for BTC.
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I always appreciate having good conversation about market topics within the comments. Any questions, perspectives, etc are always welcomed and encouraged! Accepting different points of view and perspective is how we develop our minds as investors/traders.
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So this is what I'm seeing on the BTC chart. Anytime we've crossed over bearishly on the MACD since December we've seen big drops. 3 40%+ drops, 1 30%+ drop and 1 25%+ drop. The thing I've noticed is that they've been decreasing in length. But, it's been a minute since we've been this overbought on the MACD.
Everything, including volume is giving me bearish signals except the stoch RSI. I want to believe that this thing needs to carry higher before we can fall, but I need to see everything pick up on momentum. We're fighting a battle here and need to choose sides SOON IF the bulls want to go up. I honestly don't care about the EMAs right now. EMAs in a way are just elastic bands, and the price will eventually attract back to them. OR, if it is bullish or bearish enough, the EMAs will attract to the price. In this case, I'm just seeing this as the price attracting back for a nice bounce.
So this is what I'm seeing on the BTC chart. Anytime we've crossed over bearishly on the MACD since December we've seen big drops. 3 40%+ drops, 1 30%+ drop and 1 25%+ drop. The thing I've noticed is that they've been decreasing in length. But, it's been a minute since we've been this overbought on the MACD.
Everything, including volume is giving me bearish signals except the stoch RSI. I want to believe that this thing needs to carry higher before we can fall, but I need to see everything pick up on momentum. We're fighting a battle here and need to choose sides SOON IF the bulls want to go up. I honestly don't care about the EMAs right now. EMAs in a way are just elastic bands, and the price will eventually attract back to them. OR, if it is bullish or bearish enough, the EMAs will attract to the price. In this case, I'm just seeing this as the price attracting back for a nice bounce.
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Nothing wrong with holding on and waiting for the rejection until you take profits. Setting a breakeven or profitable stop loss is perfectly fine. Just a waiting game guys.
Scraping off profits and adding back on breakout is another way to go about it as well. I just want to make sure that I am only advising to the consideration of how these next few days will come. The market talk is just too bullish right now, and I don't want people to forget that we are still in the larger downtrend. In my personal opinion, we don't break the 4 month downtrend cycle until A break of the $11.8k region.
Scraping off profits and adding back on breakout is another way to go about it as well. I just want to make sure that I am only advising to the consideration of how these next few days will come. The market talk is just too bullish right now, and I don't want people to forget that we are still in the larger downtrend. In my personal opinion, we don't break the 4 month downtrend cycle until A break of the $11.8k region.
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I know this is just ETH, and the market reflects around BTC. But BTC is in a similar scenario with major signs of rejection that I usually only see in corrective waves. Just be cautious in the market. Now is not the time to sit back and drink your mimosas.
Anyways, on this update, when we get candle closes under the 55 EMA with a break of the 40 RSI, we'll likely pull back.
We haven't done that in a couple days, and it's rallied 100 points since we even closed under the 55.