I've been holding longs here, as per my previous publication's updates, my cost basis is around 333.25. It's clear the weekly is now trending strongly up, and what we have been predicting as possible may come to pass. The only worrying thing is the monthly outlook, which suggests the trend might be topping soon, but, on the other hand, there's also a signal that could extend this rally for 6 more months or so. Weekly and daily are up, and give us confidence in holding longs in profit here. I'll be on the lookout to trade shorter term daily setups, but setting the weekly position aside. Diversifying, within the same asset, via different timeframes and setups, trading around the core position.
As far as fundamentals go, it's interesting to see $ETH gain traction, as $BTC's politics escalate into an all out war between mining factions, and programmers. It's unclear how all of this will be resolved, and to add fuel to the fire, we have the upcoming CME futures launch, set to happen during December, that will likely allow a lot of hugely capitalized traders to short $BTC with no skin in the game (cash settled futures). Many had seen this as a positive, but I see it as a big risk, if the market starts paying attention to the BTC futures price. It's clear that money is rotating away from $BTC into select altcoins, and between altcoins themselves periodically, so, it will become increasingly interesting to trade in this manner, following the big money that's currently 'stuck' in cryptocurrencies, and not likely to 'come out' due to its obscure/illicit nature. I'm not endorsing money laundering or black markets but it's likely that a lot of money in this space can't simply be taxed...with no consequences for the people controlling it, so, this makes me think that as we approach a top in $BTC, other coins -and specially ones devoid of institutional influence from futures speculators- will flourish.
I'm keeping a sizeable stake in crypto but don't reccomend exceeding 50% of your capital in it, 25-50% is what I'd reccomend.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
As far as fundamentals go, it's interesting to see $ETH gain traction, as $BTC's politics escalate into an all out war between mining factions, and programmers. It's unclear how all of this will be resolved, and to add fuel to the fire, we have the upcoming CME futures launch, set to happen during December, that will likely allow a lot of hugely capitalized traders to short $BTC with no skin in the game (cash settled futures). Many had seen this as a positive, but I see it as a big risk, if the market starts paying attention to the BTC futures price. It's clear that money is rotating away from $BTC into select altcoins, and between altcoins themselves periodically, so, it will become increasingly interesting to trade in this manner, following the big money that's currently 'stuck' in cryptocurrencies, and not likely to 'come out' due to its obscure/illicit nature. I'm not endorsing money laundering or black markets but it's likely that a lot of money in this space can't simply be taxed...with no consequences for the people controlling it, so, this makes me think that as we approach a top in $BTC, other coins -and specially ones devoid of institutional influence from futures speculators- will flourish.
I'm keeping a sizeable stake in crypto but don't reccomend exceeding 50% of your capital in it, 25-50% is what I'd reccomend.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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Practically hit target #1...target #2 is lower probability. I'm holding but I reduced my holdings in crypto as a whole to only 25% of net worth.
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$ETHUSD forecast
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I was describing the feeling of seeing price move against you to a client, at critical turning points, we will feel something like this:
'I'm starting to feel like rage quitting crypto, selling everything and taking a break. Price movement messes with your brain.
The sellers are sticking a knife in our side, and slowly stirring it inside the wound, while staring at our eyes with a manic grin. That's what they are doing to us, pushing price down like this, emotionally. That's how it feels, or like a big knot in the throat. Horrible, this is daily stuff we deal with as traders...no wonder so many high level ones commit suicide. Hard to tolerate this and not lose it.'
'I'm starting to feel like rage quitting crypto, selling everything and taking a break. Price movement messes with your brain.
The sellers are sticking a knife in our side, and slowly stirring it inside the wound, while staring at our eyes with a manic grin. That's what they are doing to us, pushing price down like this, emotionally. That's how it feels, or like a big knot in the throat. Horrible, this is daily stuff we deal with as traders...no wonder so many high level ones commit suicide. Hard to tolerate this and not lose it.'
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Note I said at critical turning points... Some people might have missed the point of my update. Their loss... Since we were in profit from a significantly lower entry I didn't recommend adding but we labeled the price as a key level. It held as support and now we're back above it. Price action looks bullish.
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I'm swapping all altcoins for $BTC here, but holding my margin long in $ETHUSD, as it is quite likely to hit $2600 over time.
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$ETHUSD margin long en route towards the target
Hodl!
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$ETHUSD acting as anticipated. It's a good setup but I think $BTCUSD will make us more money with less risk per coin
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#ETHUSD aligns with $BTCUSD, timing for a bottom by end of June seems likely. We will have to reasess day by day, and time the bottom to buy back #BTC and some altcoin positions
