The 3 points
Catalysts : currently, it seems everyone talking about ETH in wide public is either a fanatical pro-ETH almighty about a paradigm shift of smart contract, blind to see it is not the only one anymore, and might get it's market eaten by others. Or about the infamous ICO scams and potential bans sooner rather than later (speculatively, governments are slow, especially if some officials are invested personally...*kof kof*). Its council's ethics and recent hacks are at least questionable
Fundamentals : its code and vision are impecable, even if it suffers from insane scaling issues right now. Future updates, if well made (and sentiment is that devs are very capable), has a big chance of making ETH one of the main aspects of internet 2.0 in the long term. The future PoS switch from PoW will also make a lot of FOMO from new blood (old blood already have it priced in, IMO )
TA : same as XRP (both charts look alike), with a classic ABCDE contraction phase. However, D and E points are rather blurry, and makes the analysis a lot less predictible and overshadows a rather cautious view in short to mid term from the market. As my friend piptocurrency likes to say "the biggest the marketcap, the harder they fall". Eth might just have not fell or consolidated enough just yet
Trader : wait for confirmation of ATH with big , and get in at pullback 401$, with constant distribution of gains up to psychological of 500$, then look for better entry. sl at 390$ for fakeouts (few days)
Swinger : buy orders at 255$ and 290$, sl at 250$, or buy breakout with strength, SL 390$ TP 600$ for projection minimum target (couple of weeks, probably by february 2018), 800$ max for last TP before correction
Investor : com'on, it's ETH, you are already in since long ago, TP depends on fundamentals about adoption from non block-chain developpers (using known C# or java has better market penetration than solidity) and PoS implementation. However, now might be a good time to take just few % to invest into ETC. Wait 400$ break or 255$ to add more
In the end, the smart money should not only look at potential upside or downside, but the cost of opportunity. How much would have you made with your money on BTC , NEO, or some of the others, lower marketcap?
Still, ETH/BTC chart shows that now is a good time to open a small position to accumulate btc in the longrun, but more down is seriously possible. ETH/USD investor should not worry for the longterm, even if we are hit by a crypto-winter
ETH trying to crawl over the resistance
I advise traders to stay out of it unless a drop to the buy orders or clear breakout. These sideways are bot territory, and usually crush traders. You don't surf on small waves : you sip cocktails on the beach, or you try anyway and mostly, you will fall
Still, it is a level to look for. An upbreak to 350 and stabilisation over 340 is a good sign
TP on red line. Conservative ones will wait the breakout and hold above the red line, around 370$
As long as price stays above the resistance (red zone) it is bullish. If it drops below, it was a fakeout and I will update.
Traders that left some to run can move the stop loss to entry point or above (but below 359) to lock profits. Especially if on margin : BTC is at critical point
If it holds, FOMO will settle in the minds, and price will rocket
Swing, investor and mid term remains unchanged. Traders might want to wait a breakout of the triangle to get back in, or another (potentially bigger) retracement, for risk management
This is an excellent question, and to sum up : even if ETH/USD and ETH/BTC are on uprise, I saw a potentially even higher gain, with higher risk higher reward, and within the same fundamental view. This is no other than ETH's little sister, ETC.
ETC/ETH just broke out of a longterm downtrend, and testing support. We are at the point of almost-minimal risk, highest potential reward
Watch for yourself
"800$ max for last TP before correction "
If you did buy the dip around 500$, or anything over that, now is good time to take profits of your original stack as we did another x2.5, and put the rest of the ETH into your investor stack, or to sell even higher later, or invest in some ICOs