Well, here we are... another new year is almost near! I wanted to share my outlook for Ethereum for 2018. I use a simple trend strategy, composed of fibo channels, multi-time period charts, and an RSI/MFL combo. I'm anticipating lots of volatility closing out 2017 and at the beginning of the year for the start of a new market cycle. We may even see prices trade around the $100 USD mark or lower if we are lucky and a pattern plays out similar to the ones we've experienced in the past. Of course, I think this depends on how the market decides to price Bitcoin.
Notice here I have both Ethereum against Bitcoin and the Dollar. I use this kind of comparative analysis to gauge entry and exit levels, but also the cryptos to accumulate. The ETHBTC chart looks like a buy at this time. However, because I live and borrow in fiat currency, its in my best interest to accumulate the USD. So my primary concern is the chart on the left, with the chart on the right giving me additional signals, particularly the idea that it may outperform the raging Bitcoin bull itself. For now, I'm sitting on the sidelines in cash, waiting. Ultimately, Ethereum looks like a good candidate within the sector to invest in.
PLEASE NOTE: Currently I hold no Ethereum, and this is not a recommendation to invest at the particular levels I have highlighted. This is simply my plan, which will become active or invalidated depending on market conditions at various points in time.
Cheers and good luck investing and trading in this volatile asset space. -Erik
Thanks for your view. I see as well great potential for ETH, if we can get those kittens off the chain :) Further it seems you see BTC at 22,2k by the end of 2018 – would love to hear your thoughts why you think it will basically stagnate through 2018 and not grow in value as well.
Trader6127
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@AlexanderHaase, good observation! I can see a scenario go down where altcoins see a bull market while BTC consolidates or at least recovers from something, akin to the one they saw from May to June of this year. Then BTC taking over again. There is definitely a market cycle here, and this may be part of the pattern in 2018. Who knows, maybe the USD and BTC charts will "de-link" and form different patterns, reaching different levels.
chartadamus
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@agency, Good take. If BTC stays stable on the USD pair we have the best breeding ground for ALTs to out-shine BTC. Let's see if the futures will play a role in counterbalancing BTCs volatility.
Sirer025
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what do you think would make eth fall to $100?
Trader6127
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@mikeyBluntz, I tend to stay away from fundamental analysis, and let the crypto sector pros take care of that. What interests me are the technical patterns and possibilities. $100 is a possible support level on the weekly timeframe.
Doc-al-Citadel
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Thank You Very Much
Nabes
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whoa your predicting that big of a pull back eh? intersting time to invest in ETH if it drops down to $100 than sky rockets!
Trader6127
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@Nabes, yeah, on the weekly log scale this is absolutely a possibility. For prices to go that low there will likely need to be a very bearish catalyst, something to spook the market and make people feel exhausted. Looking back at the crypto data, and rolling through it myself, these kinds of targets and levels don't remain dreams, they quickly become a reality.