I have not updated my Ethereum' chart in a month. As this is one of my major holdings, for the long term, and seeing that I closed out my trade positions today (unfortunately @$1090 with ETH') I decided to go over for the many new followers how I trade around my core positions. If you are new to trading or not an experienced trader this is a strategy that has worked well for me after under-performing HODL portfolios in the stock market. My personal strategy allows me to capture the large moves traders often miss, yet the flexibility to take advantage of market dips. But you MUST be disciplined, as strategies ares only as good as the person executing them.
My core portfolio consists of the following 10 coins. Bitcoin' Ethereum' Bitcoin' Cash Litecoin' Dash' Monero' XRP' XLM' NEO' OMG' Please note I own others but these are my big 10. I have a speculative portfolio as well but those are like moon shots. Money I have added outside my 70/30 portfolio, AND I never mix the two! In order for me to add to a new coin like XLM' a coin must come out, and in this case it was ZEC'.
Now when I say 70/30 what I mean is 70% of my overall portfolio is ALWAYS in the market. The other 30% is a mix of cash and trades. When I see a storm on the horizon, I close out trades and go to 30% cash. When the market is bullish I may be 100% in the market. But cash is king in corrections so like today I was happy with profits and went to 30% cash.
The intent is when the market dips, I look for entry points to position trade. Take Bitcoin' for example. I added a trade around $13700 with a target price of $16-17k. I was patient, it happened, and I closed out that trade. I did not touch my core holding. So I increased my cash position. But sometimes you start to become overweight in cash, so instead of selling out the trade entirely, I will just take out my initial trade cost, and leave the remaining as an addition to my core. Its really that simple. I add a trade to my core position and take the money or keep the coins. Now since some of my other trades were up significantly I did not have to sell all my trades to get to my 30% cash other than BCH'. This is where you hear me talk of shaving a little off the top.
So here is ETH' which hit the 3.618 extension of wave 1. I took profits under $1100 but I'm fine with that, and I did NOT rush back in because it went higher. Chasing seldom results in profits, and will inevitably eat at gains. But what if we went higher? Who Cares! I made money on the trade and my core goes higher. What I am looking for now is another entry point to build another longer term position trade to do it again. That area is between the $750 & $940 0.318 % 0.618 retracement levels. I do not just buy 1 ETH at $750 and 1ETH at $940. I look to buy multiple positions between this and the next level up. So I may add $1000 at each position and then trade 1 at the $1350 level, look for a pullback, buy back etc. Sometimes I can have 3-4 trades for one equity with different price targets. This provides less risk as I am always taking profits at some point, buying back at others. Nothing like waiting 3 months to hit your target, falling short of it and having a 50% pullback. OUCH. Next Major target level is $1650 which is adjusted from our Dec9th post, which has been rather accurate so far.
I hope you get the general idea feel free to ask questions. Bottom line if you are not up 300-400% since August you are under-performing the market. Your better off buying and holding or reducing this strategy to 90/10. Especially if you are dependent on someone else giving you buy sell levels. There is no way I can update all my trades, sometimes I'll trade 10-20 times. I trade OMG' 3x's today. Last one took a little hit but overall added 12 coins to the pile. Those add up and add up huge over time! You do not need to hit homeruns to become rich investing, you just need discipline and money management!
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I started with 25% BTC 15% ETH and the rest were equal weighted
I'm going to 20% BTC 20% ETH and the rest equal weight during the next adjustment. I think ETH can challenge for #1 market cap.
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Let me be clear I originally only started with 6 core positions!
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Ethereum has been resilient and is shows that markets can remain overbought longer than shorts can remain liquid. We hit the higher level of $1350 as marked on the chart above. There was a quick dip that hit just above the $950 level and whether this was just noise or not it was quickly bought up. So seeing this type of trend pattern would lend caution to shorting here. I feel confident that we completed the 5th wave in the short term which should result in a decent correction. However, how I feel does not matter, only the market matters and there is the possibility we get a blow off top, and I would not be surprised with how Ethereum has moved. I am not buying the top and it is even more risky to be shorting here, I am just going to allow the market to run its course and look to add on any significant correction. I definitely want to own equities making all time highs, but I would be a seller here if I did not sell at $1094 already. That was a trade for the record not my core position.
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I did not adjust the accumulation zone above. Here is the new accumulation zone. Ignore the chart above but the same statement is valid.
Thank you for the transparency, kind of rare in the Crypto market. And thanks for always cutting to the chase, the Crypto fluff is f#$@ING annoying. So yes, I have a couple of questions. Any chance we could see your speculative portfolio? And do you trade %30 of that? Also, do you keep a Fiat reserve that you never touch (only for totally red markets) or is that the 30%? Also, do you ever scalp or swing random coins that are not in either portfolio? Thanks as always for your time and diligence!
Spectra10101
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Yeah I got in during red September.. when bitcoin was rising and alts were declining. Bitcoin always seemed too high priced so I kept buying alts. They would spike and then dump. No follow through and I lost a lot of money as the alt market kept dumping and bitcoin rising. Couldn't get my head around it. Now comes bitcoins drop and I get ready to buy the dip and finally get a decent position in bitcoin as it sucks up all the money from the alts.. though I find myself chasing bottoms and seems we aren't at bottom yet as alts rise like mad and bitcoin seems to slow to a snails pace. I got eth at 300 but kept jumping off at the first sign of trouble expecting a 50% dump like it used to, then miss put pb the next leg up as i waited, same with litecoin Nothing works as it once seemed to. I've also not trained my psychology to see everything in reverse yet.. as profiting in trading seems to be highly counter intuitive to normal psychology, as normal psychology loses you money (emotions scream buy high sell low). Everything seems to be a alternating negative reflection of one another's and patterns and correlations seem very short lived and subject to perception lag so what might come as a revelation one morning is probably already yesterday's news later that afternoon and you are stuck holding the bag. Nothing I've ever done seems so easy from the bird's eye outside the market and yet is so difficult from fog of war perspective of a position you are holding. So no I'm not up 300-400% and it's pretty upsetting. I think at my peak I was up over 75% now under 50% anyway, thank you for all the consistant tips and ideas you post.
goldbug1
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@Spectra10101, Thank you for sharing, sometimes reflection and then a change of habits is required. Einstein defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results".
bambam320
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@Spectra10101, I couldn't agree more. Very well put, I'm experiencing almost the same situation and learning how difficult it is to cultivate a different mind set.
UnknownUnicorn1779139
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@Spectra10101, So true. I have also made similiar mistakes. Right now I am barely breaking even after 3 weeks of trading - if I had kept the coins I bought at the start - I would be 200% or more.
stephhon
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@goldbug1 are you still seeing it dipping and going back down bellow $1000?? Sold at 1150 yesterday to make 30% profit while keeping my core in, and hoping we'll get the chance to buy when it goes down...
AlfredoOlivas
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Great analysis Sr, I been follow others traders, but you just go beyond the analysis and share your strategies and feelings. We are learning a lot. Keep it up whit the excelente post.
Seviii
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If you speak about "go back to cash position", what is this actually? Do you sell for usdt? What is the best way to store the value, when you know, big things are going to happen and you want to buy the dip of the dip?
Ryloth
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@Seviii, Tether. Its USDT on exchanges, and it follows USD almost perfectly. I did not realize that USDT was Tether until recently, but now I've began using it as a way to take money out the market. I had 40% of my portfolio in tether before the big holiday dip, and bought back in at around -20% across the board. It was fucking triumphant, I'll tell ya.
saltimer
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Just checked my portfolio.. I'm up 6.5x, or 550% since the August lows.
No trading. No selling.
Just swapping some BTC for
more alts.
I've got eight of your Big Ten, obviously very happy with how this has worked out !