Johanes

EURJPY TARGET ZONE: PROFITABLE SELLING AND TOO RISKY TO BUY

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Johanes Cập nhật   
FX_IDC:EURJPY   Euro /Yên Nhật
EURJPY IS BY PRODUCTS OF EURUSD AND USDJPY (CROSS RATE OR DERIVATIVE). IT IS THE LARGEST DERIVATIVE IN THE MARKET FROM THE $ 750 TRILLION CURRENT DERIVATIVE MARKET. THE MEDIUM OR THE SHORT TERM TARGET ZONE OF EURJPY IS THE DIFFERENTIAL TARGET ZONE BY THE EURUSD AND USDJPY.

THE EURUSD IS BEING STERILIZED FROM 1.2000 TO 1.1200 FOR 800 PIPS (DOWN-TRENDING SHORT TERM TARGET ZONE) AND THE USDJPY IS UNDERWAY FROM 117.50 TO 100.00 FOR 1175 PIPS (DOWN-TRENDING MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE). THE ASSUMED TARGET ZONE DIFFERENTIAL IS 1975 PIPS.

THE ASSESSED AND MEASURED UPPER MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE FOR EURJPY IS 131.00 AND BY TARGET ZONE DIFFERENTIAL THE LOWER MEDIUM TERM BAND BECOMES 111.25 AND EQUIVALENT TO 15 % + 1 % AND THE MEASURED CENTRAL BAND/CENTRAL PARITY AT 123.00 (8 %). AT SUCH, EURJPY MAY VISIT THE LEVEL OF 123.00 AND STABILIZED. PROLONGED T0 111.25 SUBJECT TO FUTURE ANALYSIS ON EURUSD AT 1.1200 AND USDJPY MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE PERFORMANCE (117.50-100.00)

ACCORDINGLY, THE CURRENT SHORT TO TARGET 123.00 IS FEASIBLE AS WELL AS HIGH FREQUENCY SHORT TRADING. THE HIGH FREQUENCY SHORT TRADING HOWEVER MUST MANAGE THE STOP LOSS CONSISTENTLY AT 133.00 FOR THE FOLLOWING TRADES;

SHORT FROM DAILY HIGH TO DAILY LOW BY USING TECHNICAL CHARTS
SHORT FROM WEEKLY HIGH TO WEEKLY LOW BY USING TECHNICAL CHARTS
SHORT FROM MONTHLY HIGH TO MONTHLY LOW BY USING TECHNICAL CHARTS
SHORT FROM QUARTERLY HIGH TO QUARTERLY LOW BY USING TECHNICAL CHARTS
MAXIMUM TARGET 123.00

Bình luận:
Bình luận:
HIGH FREQUENCY WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TRADING SIGNAL:

STOP LOSS 133.00
SHORT AT 130.80/131.10
TARGET 1. 129.40
TARGET 2 128.00
Bình luận:
THE EURJPY TOUCHED 133.00 WHILE THE EURUSD AND UDJPY AT TARGET ZONES. THE EURUSD, USDJPY AND EURJPY WILL BE RE-MEASURED.
Bình luận:
USDJPY FAILED TO STABILIZE AT 108.50 +/- 2.25 % (110.70-107.40) BY ALLOWING USDJPY TO BREAK 110.70 TO 111.20 TO IMPACT EURJPY AND SPILL OVER JPY'S DERIVATIVES.
Bình luận:
READ ON USDJPY ANALYSIS WRITTEN ON USDJPY TARGET ZONE:
=====================================================

AFTER NOTIFIED BY THE IMF AND OECD, THE FED AND BOJ ADJUST THE PRICE STABILITY OF USDJPY 0.97% BY MANAGING THE UPPER MEDIUM TERM BAND AT 117.50. THE PAIR IS UNDERWAY TO MOVE TO LOWER MEDIUM TERM BAND ESTIMATED AT 100.00 FOR 1750 PIPS MEDIUM TERM EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE AS PERMITTED BY THE APPLICABLE AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE PAIR HAS BEEN STABILIZED LONGER THAN EXPECTED AT 108.50, THE CENTRAL BAND/CENTRAL PARITY FOR OVER +/- 2.25 % AS REGULATED. NONETHELESS, THE PAIR HAS BROKEN THE 108.50 AND WILL CONTINUE TO VISIT THE LOWER MEDIUM TERM BAND OF DOWN-TRENDING MEDIUM TERM TREND.

THE CURRENT SHORT TRADE IS PROFITABLE POSITION TO HOLD TO TARGET:

SHORT USDJPY 0.97% AT 109.10/109.50
STOP LOSS AT 112.50
TARGET 100.00 (910-950 PIPS)
DURATION: 3-5 MONTHS
RISK TYPE: HIGH RISK (INTERIOR MED. TERM TARGET ZONE)

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE CURRENT TRADE COULD BE MANAGED AT RISK FREE BY PLACING THE STOP LOSS TO ENTRY RATE, AND TO HOLD TO TARGET (OR TO BE CLOSED AS POSSIBLE TO BE PREFERRED).
Bình luận:
BOJ FAILED TO STABILIZE THE USDJPY AT 108.50 +/- 2.25 % (107.40-110.70) BY ALLOWING THE USDJPY TO BREAK 110.70 TO 111.20 AT THE SAME TIME ECB ABLE TO STABILIZE THE EURUSD AT 1.2000 +/- 2.25 % BY LIMITING EURUSD TO 1.2090 TO IMPACT THE EURJPY TO VISIT 133.00 TO TOUCH THE STOP LOSS BUT HAMMERED DOWN THEREAFTER.

THE ECB STERILIZATION ON EURUSD FROM 1.2000 TO 1.1200 OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CURRENCY PAIR IN CIRCULATION SEEMS TO FACE DIFFICULTY BY THE TOO LARGE VOLUME IN THE MARKET. SIMILARLY, THE BOJ SEEMS TO FACE DIFFICULTY ON THE NON-STERILIZATION OF THE USDJPY, THE SECOND WORLD'S LARGEST CURRENCY PAIR IN CIRCULATION, FROM 117.50 TO 100.00 AND STUCK AT 108.50 CENTRAL PARITY WITH PROLONGED STABILIZATION. FAILED TO STABILIZE USDJPY PUSHED THE EURJPY, THE WORLD'S LARGEST DERIVATIVES, TO TOUCH HER 133.00 MEASURED STOP LOSS. NOT SURE IF THE PRICE ATTACKED BY THE MARKET PLAYERS DRIVEN BY THE SENTIMENT ON THE NORTH KOREAN TENSION. HOWEVER, THE ARCHITECT OF THE MONETARY POLICY WAS SET TO ANTICIPATE SUCH WAR TENSION BETWEEN NATION AND NATION BY ALLOWING THE CENTRAL BANKS CONSISTENTLY TO MANAGE THE ECONOMIC, FINANCE AND PRICE STABILITY.
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