Most of the retail traders are just short term traders: watching only the 5 minutes and 30 minutes chart. What is happening in EurUsd is a typical example why traders should never forget about the Big Picture. Trading based only on the 5 minutes and 1 Hour chart without watching the daily and the weekly chart is a guarantee of a blown up account. The 30 min chart of the EurUsd looks exactly like a double bottom after a down trend.
The 1 hr chart looks like a double bottom with a back test of the breakout. The back test is not just a simple back test : a double back test. Stronger confirmation that uptrend is coming.
The 4hour chart looks a like a perfect bull flag after a great rally. The 4 hr trader is confident about the continuation of the rally:
The daily chart is showing a Head and shoulders pattern after a half year rally. Today's bounce just a green candle in the declining right shoulder:
The weekly chart looks like the back test of the breakdown of a multi year support. Notice how the MACD and the RSI turned down from the extreme levels in 2008, 2009, 2011. The chance is low that we are going higher without tagging at least 0 in MACD.
Never lose sight of the Big Picture !
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The weekly again:
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Let's see the changes: 15 min chart is showing a downtrend. Maybe one more test back of the double top? It's starting to look like a downtrend now...
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The 1 hour chart is a bit confused... Do we want to test back 1.1730 again? The long trade is not so obvious right now.
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THe 4 hours chart bull flag will not break out now. The 4 hours chart traders are most probably out of the longs and might be shorting for a tag of the lower trendline.
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The daily chart trader - like me - is not nervous. He is patiently waiting for the bearish engulfing candle to be completed by the close.
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Nothing week for the weekly traders. Still above the 200 MA on the weekly. No follow through after last week's green candle. The weekly trader knows what is coming. The weekly RSI is far from oversold. A few over-leveraged daytrader will be stopped out next week when we are taking out the last red candle's low and break below the 200 SMA.
Go have a drink Arpi, its Friday! You've been awesome!
mkandy
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You are awesome Arpi...
Pippie
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Thanks for all the updates and the great analyses.
Nightstar
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Lines up nicely with that "inverse H&S" in the Greenback.
Gold bulls are being naive right now buying a shitload of shares thinking 1400 is within their grasp but they're about to get the surprise of a lifetime.. and not in a good way :/
ChampitoPro
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+10 :)
ChampitoPro
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Good post :)
modelstocks
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+1
Kimsy1980
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Thanks a lot of this great analyse. It just gives the big picture wich you should always rember when you trade. Again thanks a lot :-)
CryptoAddict77
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Great analysis on this one!!!
TropicalPhil
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Hey Arpi,
Im seeing a lot of articles on ECB having to start raising interest rates very soon and its 70% on the board. You think this plan will follow if they look to raise a lot sooner? Seems the ECB is trying to keep the currency from strengthening but its happening hard anyways. Appreciate your analysis.