Giá lên

Waiting for a long entry set up

FX:EURUSD   Euro / Đô la Mỹ
This looks like an A B C correction (wave 4) of the previous impulsive (wave 3). In line with the short trade expected on the dollar index             I am waiting for a nice long set up on this pair. Price may break the top to give a 5th and final move up or it may form a more complex correction. Either way the long set up will be worth a punt. Keep stops tight in line with our trading strategy.

I'll update my ideas as they develop
First rule of trading - Protect your capital

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Always wait for an entry set up before risking your money.

This is not investment advice - it is purely for educational and discussion purposes.
Your Ideas, comments and questions welcome

Good luck
Steve Nixon - logicfxtrading
Bình luận: Hopefully this is the start of my forecast 5th wave - My initial target is the top of the structure and my stop is on zero now. We now have a "free trade" with a 1:9 Risk/reward. Naturally this has only started going long so there's plenty that can go wrong but if price gives us a 5th wave we could be looking at a 1:20 R/R
Remember price can do anything it wants but at least we've given ourselves a shot at a very nice trade.
Bình luận: Correction 1:7 R/R
Bình luận:
Bình luận: So far so good. Let's see if price breaks long and gives one final wave up.
Just a couple of questions as I want to determine why you think this is a corrective structure from an EW perspective.

What is your wave A structure?
What is your wave B structure?
What Fibs are you working towards?
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SteveNixon donaldsaw
@donaldsaw, It's a 4th wave which currently is making an ABC structure. EW is not painting by numbers and I'm not interested in counting every little wave. My analysis goes back months and has been correct so far. I'm not working toward any fibs. I wait for it to turn before entering, if it doesn't turn I'm not in the trade. It's too difficult to explain my trading strategy here.
Here's the daily chart. We are very near the top but if you analyse the dollar index you'll see that it probably has one more wave down to complete the structure. Hope this helps
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SteveNixon SteveNixon
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SteveNixon SteveNixon
@SteveNixon, Wave 5 should extend beyond the top of the structure as it's not complete yet
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donaldsaw SteveNixon
@SteveNixon, mmm interesting. Reason for my question is because I want to know if you have applied EW rule of alternation when counting your ABC structure, and overlayed with fibs to determine wave termination points; also, so that I can understand your count/strategy better. It would be good if you can share that but no worries if you can't.

In terms of my view, I have this opposite to you so always nice to see an alternate perspective and the reasons for that.
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SteveNixon donaldsaw
@donaldsaw, I'm glad you find it interesting. Yes I'm quite familar with all of elliotts rules and guidelines. I assume by "the opposite" you think it's the start of a B wave on the daily chart. That's possible but my analysis on DXY leads me to beleive there's one more wave (1H) before that happens. I don't trade turning points so I won't be opening any trades until price does what I expect it to do. Sorry but I really don't have time to answer any more of your questions. Thanks for your interest.
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donaldsaw SteveNixon

I have the start of your A wave down (from the high) as a leading diagonal. Your B wave is wave 2 for me which I have marked as a flat which retraced 90%, and now the drop that you have marked as wave C, I have as wave 3.

Also, to note, there is a triangle which I have marked as my wave 4, and a triangle, as you know from EW theory is a terminal move so I have my count short. If this move down breaks the triangle, we're doing downtown to close the gap and possibly a new low.

Anyways, food for thought.

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donaldsaw donaldsaw
Please note - this is an old Wave 2 which I haven't updated but you get the idea.
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SteveNixon donaldsaw
@donaldsaw, Hi Donald, I don't do my analysis or trading on the 15 minute timescale. I work on the 4H/Daily for analysis and go down to 1H/15 min for trade entries. If you followed my trading strategy you would see the logic behind my analysis. Elliott's conclusions were made long before we had computers therefore he worked on much higher timescales than we can. Yes in theory they apply on all timescales (fractals) but they are only tools we use in conjunction with many other information sources to arrive at a high probability forecast. It isn't possible to always know exactly what is happening at any given time but there are times when price does what we expect. Then and only then do we apply our trading strategy to open a position in such a way that if we are wrong it does not cost much in terms of account percentage. I work on the basis of the change in structure (break outs) therefore if it does not change direction and give me a breakout I'm not in the trade. It's OK to miss a trading opportunity there'll be another one along tomorrow. Getting back to this particular chart. What happens on the 15 min timescale is of no interest to me. I'm waiting for a long trade to complete the current structure. It may already be complete but that doesn't matter to me. If it is complete then we'll know sometime next week and I do a more comprehensive analysis of what's happening. If it isn't complete I'll get my 5th wave breaking the top and then we'll get what I think you are forecasting. The chart was merely an update to a series of charts and video analysis of DXY that I've been sharing with my group over the past 5 months. Once again thank you for your interest but I really don't have time to explain every chart in this way. If you want to know more about my work you can watch my complete Elliott Wave Theory building blocks series on my website. Unfortunately the rest of my strategy and analysis is for my members group only. Kind regards Steve
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donaldsaw SteveNixon
@SteveNixon, Thanks for your reply and appreciate your comment. I am not challenging your strategies or processes in anyways; I am merely trying to get insight into how you think based on EW theory from the ABC you've originally posted. In terms of Elliot knowledge, I've studied it for 4+ years so I know it inside out and I like to see rationale from other who use EW on how they have come to a specific.

As for EW counting, I look at all timeframes; both granularly and bigger timeframes (as you pointed out - fractal) and I apply EW rules and guidelines on every count.

Let's see what happens here as I never settle on a count being final as bulls can turn into a bear very quickly.

Good luck mate
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