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EUR/USD - Shorts Looking More Promising - 7/20/2016

FX:EURUSD   Euro / Đô la Mỹ
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Finally a much needed break below 1.1000 has opened the door for more downside in EUR/USD . We are short EUR/USD from the beginning of the month and you can read the rationale behind the trade here. ( Check out the link ). Since ECB rate decision meeting is tomorrow, for someone who is not in the trade, it is not advisable to chase it lower from this levels but unless ECB comes up with some big surprise and able to put EUR/USD in the orbit at least above 1.1150 / 1.1200, downside is going to be unstoppable.
Here also we mentioned how dollar index is pointing towards more gain and because of dollar strength, EUR is more likely to get hurt than any other currency. After much push and pull near 1.1150, we are in good position with breakeven higher than 1.1250, so we would like to main much of the position going into ECB and see how it goes. Of course if EUR/USD falls to 1.9000 then we will reduce the position in hope to sell it back again at higher level tomorrow but otherwise 1.6000 is looking achievable.
The lesson for novice trades is, when banks clamor about one level, it is more likely to go in the other direction ;) Earlier everybody was talking about parity and EUR/USD raced higher towards 1.15000 and now when people were thinking about 1.15000, it is more likely to touch 1.5000.
If you want to check out how ridiculous bank forecast are then look at the recent major German bank's recommendation about selling USD/JPY !! There also we are long and there is no point of leaving it until 110 or 115.
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