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Although the German Manufacturing PMI in July fell slightly to 53.8, from 54.5 in June, it was the strongest expansion in the past four and a half years. In addition, output grew at the fastest pace since Apr 2014, helped by increased demand and the processing of inventories. Input costs rose for the first time in a year.
German Services PMI rose to 54.4 in July, from 53.7 in June, the 38th straight month of growth, as a result of rising demand and investments. Yet service provider confidence fell to an 8-month low, due to concerns over the consequences of Brexit.
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 52 in July, from 52.8 in June, but still recorded the 37th consecutive month of expansion. New orders and job creation grew at a low pace. Eurozone Services PMI rose to 52.9 in July, from a 17-month low of 52.8 in June. Eurozone Composite PMI rose to a 6-month high of 53.2 in July, the 37th straight month of growth, driven by accelerated output growth in Germany.
Technically speaking, On the daily chart, EURUSD has turned bullish since 27th July as the dollar weakened, breaking the upside downtrend resistance line and significant resistance level at 1.1300 on 18th Aug. Yet it has retraced today due to the rebound of the dollar. eurusd is consolidating below 1.13, WPP test. A potential WPP breakout, could trigger a pullback on the pair. In contrast, a potential MONTHLY RESISTANCE breakout, would trigger a further bullish phase that could push prices to new high.
Today we get a series of economic figures out of the US. Initial Jobless Claims (the week ended 19th Aug), Durable Goods Orders (MoM) for July, and Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) for July, to be released at 12:30 GMT. Services PMI and Composite PMI, at 13:45 GMT.
Since FOMC’s dovish statement on last Wed 17th Aug, the New York Fed President Dudley, San Francisco Fed President Williams, and the Fed Vice Chairman Fischer made hawkish comments respectively. The conflicting of comments resulted in a confusion for the market and a choppy trend of the dollar. Yellen’s speech on Friday may give the market a clearer picture of the Fed’s likely measures.
The US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 4,000 to 262,000 in the week ended 12th Aug, marks the 76th straight week below 300,000, since the figure of 27th Feb 2015. Initial Jobless Claims have seen a downtrend since Apr 2009, indicating the increased strength of the US labour market.
Durable Goods Orders fell by a revised 4% in June, from a 2.2% drop in May. It was the biggest decline since Aug 2014, driven down by transportation equipment. Core Durable Goods Orders decreased by 0.5%, from a 0.3% drop in May, a second straight fall.
Services PMI rose to 51.4 in July, from the previous figure of 50.9. Composite PMI rose to 51.8 in July, from the previous figure of 51.5.
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