A descending pennant for USDJPY and an ascending pennant and channel for EURUSD pointing at upcoming downwards trend for USDJPY and upwards trend for EURUSD, if not this Monday then within a few days from now.
Friday's buying power for USDJPY was already visibly breaking up. Regularly, a group of Cheap Charlies was buying when the price was low and subsequently driving the price back up. This price behaviour marks the current insecure state of the pair. EURUSD correlates negative with USDJPY due to having USD in reverse notation.
If Cheap Charlies give up on USDJPY, the price will fall hard. But if they keep coming back they may drive the price up again to next resistance at 113.4. I think that to anyones surprise this will happen and if enough bullish sentiment survived it will step in and help.
At the same time USD sentiment is changing and institutions may choose to move direction, then suddenly between two cheap charlie buying spurs the price might fall so hard that Cheap Charlies capitulate and depending on the balance between selling power and remaining buying orders the price may snowball down quite a way. To be continued...
Giao dịch được đóng thủ công
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Directions as expected, with the USDJPY falling more aggressive. Perhaps at start of the since November anticipated drop to 100?
Dear Arnaud, USD/JPY going down is equal to say that the JPY is appreciating. In your GPP/JPY you are saying actually the opposite. You know sometimes i feel like you have started touching financial instruments since a couple of months.. is it like that? Good Luck anyway.....
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lu1977hk, No, your statement is a common misunderstanding and incomplete. The exchange rate USDJPY going down is saying the USD currency is devaluing against the JPY, also the quoted currency. If JPY changes, the exchange rate changes by the offset of the quoted currency. You can verify this with simple math. So, against your statement, both currencies can be devaluing, i.e. if the USDJPY exchange rate is going down and the JPY currency is devaluing it means the USD currency is devaluing more than the JPY. I recommend you do some reading on how the price of the quoted currency is affecting the exchange rate of the pair. Be careful not to mix up exchange rates with currency values.
Regarding the GBPJPY, its exchange rate will go up because of the devaluing JPY. So it is not the opposite.
lu1977hk
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Thanks, 2 questions: 1) you just called for a rocket GbP/JPY, how that is correlated with a strong JPY? ; 2) Do you have any view on EUR/JPY?
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lu1977hk, The JPY is not strong at all, it's weak because of its QE program. This chart tells you the USD is getting weaker than the JPY by USDJPY price going down. My analysis here is about USDJPY & EURUSD. For other currencies please write into the Forex chat channel or check ideas of your requested currency. EURJPY can also be extracted from the two currencies here, because EURJPY = USDJPY * EURUSD ...