Again this report will focus on only and will not mention specific fundamentals, since their effects are reflected in the short term price action anyway. The goal is to provide insight as to where this market can turn for both long and short swing trades.
At the moment, price is attempting to push the 1.2365 to 1.2399 (.618 of recent structure). Within this zone the 1.2389 level serves as the reversal zone boundary. As strong as this pair looks at the moment, this is a very high risk area to get long, and instead serves as a better area to lock in profits if you are long from lower prices. Or you if you are riding a winner, you can simply manually trail a stop order until the market stops you out. This is a best practice of letting your winner run and maximizing your profit potential.
The other thing to consider is the short side. Remember swing trades can be a day or two to a week or more. If you can capture 40+ pips in a trade that is pretty good considering the gyrations of this market no matter what the fundamentals say. The perspective is: If this pair pushes into the 2380's or 90s and prints reversal candles, that can serve as good reason for a trigger. Since the bigger picture is range bound on the medium term and price is near range highs, reward/risk favors shorts. Unless of course price blows through this without hesitation in which case the short idea is completely negated.
Stops and targets for such a swing trade will be posted on the other site only but 2:1 reward/risk is possible from current levels. The key is the price validation which can only occur when a reversal candle appears.
In summary, when looking to speculate in these markets, it is very important to have a time horizon in mind. I like to operate in the swing trade time horizon because there is enough potential in the movement to generate returns in the face of relatively high costs (which make day trading much harder). Many less experienced short term traders put too much weight on fundamentals that in the short term are not as relevant compared to the irrational order flow generated by the herd within these markets. Not all markets are driven by the same economic variables, but they are all subject to the reactions of the participants who trade them.