Don't we hurry to be short on EUR? That seems like falter-move?
pantheo
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Probably, because dollar is in it's supply zone currently. It's not a trade recommendation, it's just a pattern to be aware off. If a catalyst come and trigger the stops below 1.0950 it will go down quickly. Daily triangle has a PO around 1.08, but trend is not that powerful for the time being.
x381966011250105
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Thank you. We will see. I like your chart, that's why I posted my comment. Such charts help me re-fresh my ideas over here. I think that we will still experience upward movements towards 1.13-1.14 in the next weekends before going down below 1.09.
pantheo
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Such obvious patterns have a tendency to fool the most before they break. Patience. Cheers! P.
x381966011250105
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You are right. Actually patience is the most important "technical" instrument over here. The other one is the ability to make the glass half-full or half-empty in accordance to changing sentiments, using your margin pro-actively :-) Cheers!
pantheo
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Spot on. Manage your R/R and let the market do it's job. Control what you can:-)
x381966011250105
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Thank you. Charting is a nice job. Actually in the past few years I am absorbed by the idea of making things look simple. When I discovered my passion for technical analysis in university, I was trying to understand the most complicated technical indicators mentioned in books of John Murphy, Steven Achelis and others, combining it with my training in investments, financial engineering and etc. Then I thought that complexity will reveal true truths. Now I think complexity is a self-illusion of ours. If we look at sacred geometry, we may see that even the most complicated pattern starts from simple fractal figures, centred upon certain golden proportions. Complexity is nothing else but a reiteration of simple but golden patterns. Another self-illusion, though, is the idea of the "perfect" reiteration. Like it was said: "History repeats itself, but only as farce". So, we never have exactly the same figures. Therefore, we have charting on one hand to help us create the conditional frames model of a self-illusion we call our vision for the market's present situation (but the situation may easily change with the next few bars). On the other hand, we have the complicated technical indicators, based on past statistics, in order to create and maintain some idea of the (conditional) reiteration of market situations. Then, charts and technical indicators serve well only to give us some idea (or impression) of possible scenarios and their stochastic variations, in order to maintain some feeling of security, or else said - to build up some rational expectations in timely manner from the seemingly random fluctuations of the quotes. However, the problem comes, if there is a break-through either in the (conditional) model of our rational expectations represented by our charts, or in the (conditional) timely manner of market reiterations, suggested by our technical indicators. Such panic attacks are most often devastating, because you either (miss) minimise profits, or you (incur) expand losses. This creates uncertainty. And uncertainty undermines our rational expectations and security. But if we speak of patience, then uncertainty is actually common for market environments. How can we rely on things like rational expectations and security then? Rational expectations are self-illusion, because it is all about patience and intuition. Security is also self-illusion, because we are playing with "money on risk" over here. Markets are neither rational, nor random. Markets, no matter of their size and complexity, develop in simple patterns that evolve in accordance to market sentiments (collective intuition) and uncertainty about risks, because all market players try to benefit from market volatility, and volatile environments are not secure environments. Then, we may use charts and technical indicators only for navigation, and we need to learn to listen to our sense of intuition, because this is all we can control over here. Everything else is about calculating simple arithmetic rules ;-)
pantheo
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Just came back from my walk in the woods along with my dog, and find your exceptional, well structured, thoughts. Nice gift. Well done talented young man, thank you. Couldn't agree more. Reminds me "Madness of crowds".
I emphasise "markets are neither rational, nor random" and "security is a self illusion", along with everything that comes with "self", like the false ability that we can judge objectively and all other bags in our manual, being constantly enforced everyday to us through our own narcissistic reflection against the universe, without putting any effort to balance with humility and frequent bits of humble pie.
Charting is psychotherapy. It's the easiest way to read other people's thoughts and feel their state of belief. It's all about collective sentiment, as you said. Indicators are following price, hence by definition can only be used wisely by confirming later- or not- your intuition and gut feelings. You can trade with a naked chart without anything designed upon, if you allow yourself to see the flow of energy and the feelings, that are not so well hidden behind bars. As life demonstrates, everything is fractal through time, moving like a pendulum. It's all about time. The most valuable, finite, variance of our "assets" and the least understood by many. Patience is the only way to get your self just a tiny bit synchronised with your own, instinctively known, essence of universal time. Nothing wrong can happened when there. And even if it does, it will be just another chance to enhance your learning curve to the next level:-)
x381966011250105
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Thank you too for your supportive comments and wise remarks! What I didn't write in the previous comment, because I preferred to read your response first, is that I think that while simplicity in nature comes unconditionally - we can't make it simpler because we don't set the conditions there, we are conditioned by nature rules and so we may only learn how to follow them and resonate harmonically with life, or break and violate them and receive dissonant responses from life; simplicity in financial markets sets correlations between nature algorithms ("Madness of crowds") and human fictions set in the frameworks of the theoretical postulates that always attempt to explain "everything about everything" (which is "simply impossible" for human rationale). Therefore, participation on financial markets always comes in the application of preliminary limited general rules, conditional on many artificially created "artefact factors" and our ability to use some multilaterally reiterated public and private knowledge in terms of various interpretations of different theoretical and practical explanations, which also means that we are far from the sources of true truths. Nevertheless, when we go closer to golden ratios, then we are certainly closer to unquestionable (true) rules, and we really get true returns - we can feel this better with our senses, no matter that we can also try to explain it with our human rationale and save it for the generations to come. But like in the Bible, we read that God created the stars. The Bible doesn't say how many exactly the stars are, because the idea of the Bible is to give true knowledge, which means that the Bible doesn't inspire our curiosity where it is not necessary, or where our human rationale will certainly fail to understand and comprehend. Still, we sure know a lot about the stars, and this knowledge is much more important than the vain knowledge about their present number, which may also alter quite quickly in time. Therefore, maybe it is important to learn how to control our curiosity to truly important things, and not let details overwhelm our brains and obscure our intuitive senses.
Unquestionable rule for financial markets could be the rule for their cyclic manifestation in a time-space environment, since we know by evidence that everything brought to life has beginning, it develops through time and space, and it comes to an end. Cyclic progression in time and space would always have a direction. The direction is manifested also in a micro-cyclic fashion, that could be presented by the concept of the trend. The other important thing is that we live in a dichotomous world, there is day and night, black and white, yin and yang, birth and death, we can win something, but we will also lose something - e.g. we have to pay for our lunch, and etc. Actually, to put things in order, maybe all we need is really just the ordinate system on our monitors, y-axis for the quotes, x-axis for the time, z-axis for the volumes of trades. And then we need to draw upward and downward trend channels to see different yin-yang cyclic progressions, and also their conflicting points of market uncertainty, where the "Madness of the crowd" faces the rules of nature :-) Of course, this will also result in different geometric patterns...