7 votes for a rate cut on December 10?!

As we approach the last monetary policy meeting of the year, scheduled for Wednesday, December 10, uncertainty remains high. The CME FedWatch tool now suggests a dominant probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, but this probability can shift significantly from one day to the next depending on the lagging macro data that will be released before the Fed meeting on Wednesday, December 10.


The reason is simple: the decision no longer depends solely on macroeconomic data, but also — and above all — on the balance of power within the FOMC, the Federal Reserve’s deliberative body. For a rate cut to be approved, at least 7 votes out of the 12 voting members are required. Yet the Committee appears today deeply divided, both in its diagnosis and in its monetary policy preferences.

Economic data: a necessary but not sufficient factor

The upcoming PCE inflation figures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will play a crucial role. If price dynamics remain under control, this would strengthen the argument for monetary easing. Moderate growth and signs of softening in the labor market also support such a move.
But despite these signals, the context remains ambiguous: several Committee members believe that disinflation is not yet firmly anchored, or that the risks of a rebound remain too high. Hence the lingering caution, even in the face of a market probability clearly leaning toward a cut.

A fragmented FOMC: the real source of suspense

It is truly the internal composition of the FOMC that makes the outcome of the meeting so uncertain. The Committee has rarely been so heterogeneous in its positions. The profiles fall into three groups:

1. The dovish camp, favoring swift easing.
Some members clearly support a cut, or even a larger adjustment. They believe inflation is slowing enough to reduce pressure on the economy.
2. The hawkish camp, opposed to an imminent cut.
For them, the Fed must remain vigilant, keep rates high, and avoid loosening policy too early at the risk of reigniting inflationary pressures.
3. The central camp, cautious, hesitant, and likely decisive.
These “neutral” or “slightly dovish” members will ultimately swing the vote.


Today, the distribution of opinions shows that only a few votes could tip the balance. Chair Jerome Powell, typically a consensus figure, has himself been notably cautious, which further complicates the reading of internal dynamics.

An open decision, despite market signals

In summary, even if the CME FedWatch assigns a majority probability to a rate cut on December 10, the political reality inside the FOMC calls for restraint. It is not just a matter of economic data but a delicate balance between divergent views within the institution.

For now, only one thing is certain: the slightest macroeconomic release and the slightest statement from a Fed member will immediately impact expectations. The final decision will be played out in the complex arena of the internal vote, where every voice will count.




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