The past two weeks have seen all pound pairs consolidating to the upside, in a manner that could seem to go against previous analyses. The short term picture has not changed, however, as we still expect one more down move on these pairs. This remains. Even if we are expecting a reversal to the upside on GBP pairs on the monthly timeframe, which means that these last months' upwards movement is an impulsive movement to the upside, in any case these pairs have to correct to the downside on a greater daily correction downwards. Considering all of the above, also the GBPCHF pair, against our expectations has, consolidated on one more upside. Let us be clear that this is still a consolidation, and not a reversal, which means that, even if it breaks the top over 1.35, it will still go down, at least to break the low (if it's part of a bigger flat correction for more upside, or will drop down to the weekly trend line as per our previous daily overview if it's the beginning of this daily downside. What matters to us, at this moment, is that we don't want to miss this sell again, as even just to the previous low, it has a great profit potential. Watch for breaks of the 4hr trend. For a more conservative approach, wait for a first impulse to the downside, wait for a small correction of said impulse on the 60min timeframe, even better if it happens just above or just below the aforementioned 4hr trend line, and sell the break of said correction with a stop loss above it. If you feel that our analyses and views may be a useful complement to your trading strategies and in order to be notified in real time with our updates on the lower timeframes, please remember to click on the Follow button. Remember that you can double check the bigger structures that are at play are on the weekly and daily time frames also by scrolling around the charts in the lower 4hr and 60min timeframes (right and left, up and down). Trade with care and only with a backtested strategy that has proven to work in relation to your invested capital, risk appetite and potential small losses you might incur in before profiting from a good trade.
what we see on gbpcad gbpaud gbpsek is encouraging but gbpusd gbpjpy and gbpchf is quite awful for gbp bears, do you still expect a daily substantial downside move on gbpchf and gbpjpy ?
TradingClear
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@lapin_eliott, hello again, Sir. We don't think that all the GBP pairs move in the same manner. For that to happen, GBP would have to be the only thing moving the pairs. And even if GBPCAD and GBPAUD move in the same direction at the moment, it could be mainly because CAD and AUD are appreciating against both the dollar and the pound, more than having to do with the pound alone. Having said that, GBPCHF broke the previous top on the daily but it's movement still looks like a correction, as far as we are concerned. Even if we are assuming that there will be no major daily downside movement on GBPCHF in the coming months, and, on the contrary, the pair is just consolidating a medium term uptrend, the same fact that we had an impulse to the downside, however small, followed by this correction to the upside we are now in, which seems to never end, to us is a confirmation that, at the very least, to complete said correction, the pair will go for one more drop to at least the 1.30 area:
We have not analyzed GBPJPY, sorry.
TradingClear
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@lapin_eliott, As you can see from our chart, the GBPCHF movement is in a real squeeze, at the moment. It is not sustainable anymore and it will drop at least to the 1.30 area.
lapin_eliott
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@TradingClear, not sustainable ... looks like to me it can sustain very well !^^
TradingClear
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@lapin_eliott, Hi thank you for your comment. By "not sustainable", we mean that if it wants to continue it's uptrend, it will have to correct itself. Otherwise, it will just climb until it drops. So either it corrects with a daily, deeper correction in case the pound is in an uptrend, or it will drop impulsively. It cannot just "keep going just up", although it seems like it. Best regards,
lapin_eliott
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@TradingClear, by the way your view on eursek and gbpsek would be much appreciated