NOTE: I am sure there are several economic & fundamental factors at play in this pair as is always the case in all financial instruments. However, I am not considering these and are analysing price chart from technical perspective alone.
It is hard to make any long term accurate projections using any form of analysis, so price path illustrated on the chart are not going to hold and it should be considered as idealistic schematic diagram for anticipating larger cycle and as a guide in general direction.
Chart Observations
Whilst holding bullish bias overall for some time, I was puzzled by its inability to break above resistance recently resulting in complete review and here is a summary of my observations as follows:
On larger time frame we have possible pitchfork which has defined the price path relatively well and it suggests an over all bullish longer term trend for this pair. (See 3day & daily chart price charts below for details)
However, having moved of the low to September 2014 high it has gone into consolidation phase.
Since September high of 2014, it seems so far that the price has been moving in a wider 3 swing zigzags and possibly forming what looks like a contacting triangle (this configuration Elliotwave is called 3-3-3-3-3 triangle, which is a trend continuation consolidation).
If this interpretation is correct, then we can note that Wave A has completed and are in final stage of completing Wave B, having declined from February 2015 high in abc zigzag and are in possible wave 5 of C which could complete around 1.9350 - 1.93 area before reversing to the upside.
Bullish trade could be planned and executed with necessary price confirmation in that zone with sensible money management. Previous structural supports could be used to plan for initial stop loss placement. Though it must be noted that this pair is very volatile and tight stops is not advisable so to manage wider stop position size must accordingly be kept small.
It is interesting that the triangle formation is relatively large offering several long and short swing trades as it progress.
Technicals: 1. Approaching lower range of the potential triangle. 2. Larger Wave B is nearly complete with minor wave c of abc zigzag in final stage ie wave v of 5 soon to complete. 3. Rising trendline and previous structure lows in close proximity where low is anticipated around 1.9350 -1.93. 4. Several fib retracement and extensions and projection proving confluence in the area. 5. Potential low could form soon lining up with Fib time ratio.
As, always please do your own analysis for your requirement. Select to follow me and the charts for notification of any updates. If you like the analysis show this by thumbs up and constructive comments or alternative ideas for all to learn from.
Whilst this chart served us well and had excellent long trade, the price action has now nullified the triangle idea hence this charts has been retired and new updated charts published.
AgentSmith
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On a weekly perspective this is the 4th attempt to break the 2.1050 handle. I'm in no way interested in shorting at these levels, particularly if we close above there on Friday evening. Having said that, given the tricksy nature of FX I wouldn't be surprised if we see some backpeddling below that major inflection point. Either way I'm personally only looking on the long side here.
tcas
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Great analys! What about target?
DanV
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Thanks for your compliment and question.
I tend no to give out exact targets specially on such a long term move where the actual path and lows & highs of the swings in a zigzag could vary and not possible to pinpoint these.
However, general locations of entry and overall move is indicated by the geometric shape or pattern should serve as a guide. So in this case it is follows as anticipated for a zigzag move up we could be looking at 2.06 -2.07 area.
Hope this helps.
nigwe
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Hi, DanV. Thanks for your great analysis always. Might it be time some pullback now, or do you think the next week will see a continuation of the bulishness up to 2.06 - 2.07?
DanV
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Hi, thanks for your compliment and question.
I think that the price has as you noted reached a level which previously was support that could now prove potential resistance and that on smaller time frame suggested that we might be forming short term top which could allow some retracement to 1.9750 -1.9850 area as shown in the chart below
DanV
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If however we only get very shallow retracement then we could go to 2.02 area before a meaningful retracement could develop. Hope this helps.
nigwe
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I was having the same thoughts. This is quite helpful. May be good to watch the markets and wait for retracement to complete before going long again. Thank you for the insight.
DanV
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Yes indeed. You are welcome.
SunnyBTC
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Great chart Dan and an immense amount of pips to me made over time. Taking this trade... thanks!