I believe that GBPUSD is about to bottom and reversel towards at least 1.34 and likely even higher. However let's see whether the market confirms it. I'm not interested in the sell. Only if we clearly break lower and consolidate by means of a flag pattern I will consider selling GBPUSD. On the other hand if we reverse I will be looking to buy the continuation in line with a bullish structure break.
Updates will follow.
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There is some indistinctness about how to interpreted the scenario's I post. Although this is an impression of my work and what's possible for a trader I will teach this top down on my website. It is simply not that easy to become succesfull as a trader. Nevertheless since I'm posting here I don't like to confuse others so let me try to elaborate on the scenario's. First of all at all times keep in mind that price can simply go up and down. We as traders try to trade the highest probability direction with a risk/reward of at least 3/1.
This is why you see me not selling GBPUSD just yet and if I'm right I won't sell it at all in the near future. I made 5 notes in the chart about what I was looking for after each move. If you were short from the top you could simply hold that short and adjust the stop after each minor consolidation (don't cut your profits short). However if you were not I wouldn't have entered as of yesterday anymore because of the risk/reward which is too low for me as well as the probability of a successful trade.
This might mean that I miss several trades but that is nothing more than opportunity cost and in the end I know my approach will pay of big time.
So what I'm looking for right now is whether we will see another consolidation or a reversal all together. I follow one direction for now and go as low as the 5 min time frame for entries. So once the 1 hr time frame confirms the reversal I'm out of the woods already and more importantly by pinpointing your entry you can chase risk/rewards that are more than 20/1.
Keep an open mind at all times. If you have a different opinion I'm perfectly fine with that. I'm not running a popularity contest and am not trying to convince anyone. All my set-ups are rationalized and are an IF=THEN process.
I hope this helps, if your trade plan doesn't show you a trade then simply don't trade. I will never sell signals because first of all I manage an investment fund so I'm not allowed to do that but also because I believe there are two ways in this business. You either teach or you manage a fund. I try to do both although some might think there are no professionals on Tradingview. So please try to participate in a way so we all benefit or enjoy your day and your life and move on.
Thanks for the support and the those traders who asked me about how to interpreted this analysis, I hope this explains it a little better. I will also post another chart of the 5 min time frame for additional context. And remember it is not about being right it is about trading when you are right. So don't get emotional when a set-up won't trigger, that's part of the game.
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Still looking for the reversal for either a more significant retrace or reversal all together. However I hope this chart shows why I'm not a seller as of yesterday when I posted the original post.
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BusinessInMotion
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You have extremely logical & well motivated approach! I do like to follow you on this platform! Nick
WaqasRaja
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Many traders here (including myself) let the emotions get in the way of our trading and pay dearly. It is always a great learning lesson just to read your analysis and the thought process that goes when entering/considering a trade. I am sure most (if not all) of us really appreciate you taking time and making effort to guide/coach us. Thank you!
dchua1969
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Hi Tim
Would this be an inverse H&S pattern? I will wait a while more for the selling to complete and see if the day close candle shows sign of reversal before going long. Nice analysis, thanks
TimStuyts
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I don't think we can call it an inverted SHS because the 'shoulders' are lower than the 'head'. But I do believe it is a reversal structure. I will wait for lower time frame divergence and a 1-2-3 reversal buy pattern. Safe trades!
romepom
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Hi Tim,
I bought on Friday pounds at 1.2956. Very confident the following UK reports would have pushed pounds back above 1.30.
Unexpected May's comments reversed the direction and the economical reports didn't seem to support. Do you think pound will recover?
TimStuyts
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I was hoping my posts of today gave some context of what I expect. I don't know how much leverage you use and what your draw-down is. Depending on that you have to manage your position. The Pound will recover against the dollar but it all depends on how much room you have in terms of risk management. Try to look at it as if you had no position and determine what you would do next.
romepom
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Thanks Tim for your reply,
As you can imagine from my writing I'm not an expert and I apologize for this.
I need some pounds in a month, I bought at 1.3 because I thought it was a good target and now I see the pound going down.
Wondering if you see the pound going back at 1.3 in the a couple of months and recovering my losses...
TimStuyts
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You don't have to apologize, ask whatever you need. However it is too soon to tell for me but I will update this pair more regularly from now on. I still consider the reversal very likely, but time wise that's hard to forecast right now because structure is not showing a reversal yet.
romepom
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Totally clear. Thank you!
ZaliQifty
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hope the break out is fake. and sky rocket after this.