For Brexit we are in the same path as before with EU leaders granting extensions till 31st October. Tory backbenchers are trying to get rid of PM May but is proving difficult, whilst Labour talks are not showing any signs of finding common ground in the immediate future. I expect more of the same running down the clock approach with the odds of another extension in October likely. Sterling wont be able to hold on for much longer, another test of our infamous loading zone will be enough to settle this to the downside in my opinion.
On the US side, growth beating expectations via increasing inventories looks unsustainable and a reversion is highly likely in the short-term. Macro data prints are still implying the US remains in good shape and it’s too early to talk about recessions being imminent although capital inflows are starting to dry up and we will mark the turn in the cycle this Autumn.
Best of luck all those positioning for another Brexit extension...
Bình luận
⋅
Great moves! Well done all those long!
Bình luận
⋅
A new chart update for those tracking the flows in Cable ... bears coming in strong as Labour / Conservative cross-party talks continue
Now I am long on pound and euro as per your chart