2 feb - 3 mar bear/sideways market looks like ABC correction. (C)=(A) I expect 2 waves up in m-term before l-term bear market unfolds. m-term buy targets: 1.31 and 1.38. s-term buy targets: 1.2656, 1.2928 and 1.3369 GBP long term sell opportunity will occur in future (maybe in late May). close look at expected price action on Monday.
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possible abc (a=c)
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watch breakout for confirmation
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I got a break-even trade (zero profit) Idea of this m-term buy setup is based on assumption that bull market = bear market in time (or fib related). In my view red wave 4 is correcting big bear market (wave 3 red), which started in summer 2015 and finished in october 2016. so next big bear market should started only after previous big bear market would be properly corrected in price and time. so next big bear market is expected to occur in summer. after at least 1.32 would be reached. inside wave C: wave 1 has a 5 wave structure, which currently is being correcting by ABC pattern. this abc now looks like a new big bear market. but price moves pretty slow to be a true big bear market. so take it on your account. I expected this kind of corrective structure originally. This m-term buy setup is actual till price does not breaks 1.1985 (wave 1 start [inside C])
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short term sell targets to watch 1.2187 (was reached); 1.2116; 1.2003 look for divergence for confirmation of weakness in trend and watch breakout to buy it.
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more short term sell targets to watch 1.2153, 1.2124, etc
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it reminds me my uj sell idea several weeks ago. conclusion. don't overtrade on 5th wave of 5th wave. (targets were calculated by wave 5 of lesser degree price action) wave 1 = wave 5 I closed only 1/6 of possition by 1.217, rest by 1.219. I could fix much better profits. ok, looks like GU completed the structure. watch this breakout for confirmation! big picture
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Divergence on H4. possible end of downward move. wait for correction to buy it. it should make a flag sooner or later.
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short term targets
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expected price action scenario major flag is not broken. it was just touched. wait for correction of recent bull market that look for buy setups.
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actual m-term targets
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alternative wave analysis wave B might be a triange
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looks like rebuy point (c)=2.618 of (a) then it made an impulse and corrected that. c=0.618 of a flags were broken
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main wave count wave B triangle scenario might still be valid.
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gbpusd is awesome! my main scenario works well. if recent correction is over, gbpusd is likely to hit 1.2969 in short term. after that bigger correction is expected. 3rd wave inside 3rd(green) inside (3)rd was completed. - best buying opportunity. now 5th wave inside 3rd(green) inside (3)rd is forming.
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1.2968 is reached. divergence is present. a correction of greater degree is expected to unfold.
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one of my best ideas.
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Wave 4 (red) might be formed. so recent impulsive drop in gbpusd might started a new 5th major wave (red). target based on wave 1 extension are: 1.17 and 1.00 coment: sentiment indicates that there were more sellers than buyers during gbpusd uptrend (march 2017 - january 2018) most time. it's unusual for major bull market. but it may be explained with fact that 2017 uptrend looks like correction of 2016 bear market. 2016 drop was much faster in comperision to 2017 rise. so market sentiment was showing sellers majority.
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a little bit wrong about sentiment. there was unusual correlation between sentiment and price action of gbp pairs.
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by the way 61.8% long term sell target is 1.2714 100% and 161.8% are 1.17 and 1.00
one of my best long term forecasts.
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BoE fired a bullet of rate hike expectations. GBPUSD is changing its course dramatically. Time to pull out of short trades. GBP is going up now. levels to watch 1.3397, 1.3476, 1.38-1.386. keep an eye on BoE statements.
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long term sell is still on table. but now it's not actual. we need to clarify this new uptrend. how big it will be.
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Hi, traders. I am watching gbpusd performance. My idea about pullback due ro BoE rumors has very little success by now. I was stopped out by 1.3290 last week. Than I closed manually rest of long positions by 1.3285-87.
I think brexit value should be better appropriated. Dispite BoE rate hike expectations, brexit power should not be underestimated.
Moreover brexit may influence gbp much greater than BoE rate hike. And any rate hike will probably fail to stop gbpusd drop. It may just slow it down.
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Greetings My assumption is confirmed. BoE rate hike rumors just slow down the fall of gbp. I made a good short trade after BoE decision. r/r 1:2.5 gbpusd stays inside strong downtrend.
conclusion: brexit fears overweight BoE policies. 1.288 is last level, which may hold gbp. it's -1 std of 50 ma on monthly chart.
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looks like GBP is breaking to the upside now. we should look for upside trade opportunities. mid term targets if it goes straight up. (not forming more complicated patters) 1.33 (may be reached next week); 1.359 and 1,405 as an extension(low probability of hit). in long term I still expect downward move, but I am not curtain about correction pattern. too many alternatives, and now it's too early to consider them.