Kumowizard
Mua

Gold vs US long maturity bonds

GLD/TLT  
GLD/TLT  
178 0 6
Left panel: GLD             vs TLT            
- Not so convincing yet... but look at right panel

Right panel:
- Gold             ( XAUUSD             ) spot vs 10y Treasury futures ($ZN)

What do we see?
1. I would not be happy to hold 10 year bonds or any related ETF or other derivative products of US 10y Bonds. Gold             already performs a lot better.
2. Of course we have some Heikin-Ashi warning, that Gold/ZN chart (right panel) may pull back to/below 10 ration level, but it is defenately bullish , so model favors holding Gold             .
3. one more obvious thing from comparing left panel to right panel: we see the massive 10y/30y flattening of the US curve even from these relative value charts! GLD             ETF is a 20 Yrs+ Bond ETF .
That's why we don't yet see Gold             outperformance relative to the whole curve.

Final conclusions:
- I want to hold Gold             the most!
- I don't want to hold any Stocks
- If I hold US bonds, I don't want to hold anything below 12 years maturity. Then maybe some longer dated cash bonds, or TLT             is still OK, but have to be careful with those too!

Thinking in a 3-5 years horizont, a smart investor should hold more Gold             in the portfolio. On stocks you have to be very selective, and bonds have to be underweight. This way you may still gain some positive real interest.

If you keep holding stupid 70/30 or 50/50 Stock/Bond portfolios, as most of buy and hold strategists suggest you, then you can suffer serious losses inflation adjusted = neagtive real yield!
Tiếng Việt
English
English (UK)
English (IN)
Deutsch
Français
Español
Italiano
Polski
Türkçe
Русский
Português
Bahasa Indonesia
Bahasa Melayu
ภาษาไทย
日本語
한국어
简体中文
繁體中文
Trang chủ Sàng lọc cổ phiếu Công cụ tìm kiếm tín hiệu Forex Tìm kiếm tín hiệu Cryptocurrency Lịch kinh tế Cách thức hoạt động Tính năng biểu đồ Điều khoản sử dụng Người điều hành Giải pháp Website & Môi giới Widgets Thư viện biểu đồ chứng khoán Yêu cầu tính năng Blog & Tin tức Hỏi đáp Hỗ trợ & Wiki Twitter
Hồ sơ Tùy chỉnh hồ sơ Tài khoản và Tính phí Tickets Hỗ trợ của tôi Liên hệ hỗ trợ Các ý tưởng đã xuất bản Người theo dõi Đang theo dõi Tin nhắn riêng Trò chuyện Đăng xuất