The probability of a breakout getting failed is much higher than it's success rate.(A STOCK AT REST TRIES TO BE AT REST AND THE ONE IN MOTION TRIES TO BE IN MOTION like NEWTON's First Law Of Motion) But breakout trades are the most rewarding trades in stock market. So...if there was a method to find out a high probable successful breakout then it would have been a shade better to make money in the stock market. Here I am with a tried and tested strategy to differentiate a fake breakout and a successful one: FOLLOW the below steps:
1.Choose a stock from an up-trending sector (At present sectors like ENERGY, PSUs, REALTY, FINANCIALS AND AUTO (Just started) are examples of up-trending sectors). The reason for choosing a sector which is up-trending is that the liquidity is high in those sectors and thus increases the chance of the breakout by one shade.
2.The stock should be above 50 week EMA and above 200 EMA on a daily time frame and RSI should be above 60 (In daily time frame) This is the reason why HEROMOTOCORP Trade is struggling a lot as it is below EMA 200.
3.The stock should breakout from a consolidation of STAGE 1 structure. And if the stock is in prior uptrend followed by a consolidation and then a breakout again increases the chances like the recent one in RELAXO FOOTWEARS.
4.If the stock breaks out of multiple patterns like INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS,TRIANGLE,STAGE,PARALLEL CHANNEL,TRENDLINE(The more the number of patterns being broken the better the breakout is) One example of this is TRIVENI ENGINEERING Trade that I shared
5.The breakout should be backed with high volumes (AT LEAST EXCEEDING 20 MA)
6.The closing of the breakout should be strong (NO long wicks)
One more example I have is of INDIAMART Trade that I shared applying most of the concepts discussed above.
NOTE: The above discussed method only increases the probability of a breakout to be successful as no strategy in the market gives 100% successful trades, so managing the risk is as important as the strategy and I will post a tutorial soon for this also. FOLLOW me to stay updated as soon as I upload it here. Till then, HAPPY TRADING :)
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My targets have reached and I am exiting partial positions...
Very professional with clear diagrams, apt examples and excellent explantion in good english. Thanks for your contribution. This is very helpful. I will archive this post for my frequent future reference.