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Warren Buffett is out - IBM is an idea for me!

IBM             (International Business Machines Corporation) is an American multinational technology company headquartered in New York , United States. The company manufactures and markets computer hardware, middleware and software, and offers hosting and consulting services in areas ranging from mainframe computers to nanotechnology.

Newsflow: In October, IBM             ended its third quarter of 2017 with $11.5 billion of cash on hand. The company was able to surprise investors by publishing a positive quarterly earnings report.

After IBM             announcement of its third-quarter earnings report, the stock jumped about 8%.

The reporting period brought IBM             revenue of 19.2 billion US-Dollar and diluted EPS             (GAAP) were $ 2.92.

According to the full-year expectation for the fiscal year 2017, the company is expecting operating (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share of at least 13.80 US-Dollar.

Based on 14 analysts offering 12 month price targets for IBM             in the last 3 months:

The average price target of 164.08 US-Dollar
The maximum price target of 200 US-Dollar
The lowest price target of 125 US-Dollar

Today IBM’s stock price is about 151.77 US-Dollar a share.

Fundamental Data: P/E ratio: 12.21 / Sales growth: -2.23% / Profit growth: -9.99% / Dividend: $5.50/3.62% (Source: teletrader).

Chart Tools:

What say the technical analysis methods I use?

Oscillator: RSI of IBM             is around 50, moving upwards and the situation could be considered as an opportunity to buy the stock.

Trend indicator: In the mid-November the MACD found its bottom and since then it is moving upwards. From the chart it’s seen that MACD could move into positive zone.

The risk management tool used here is the own-developed “Traffic Signals System” ( TSS             ) and it will be implemented in my future analyses.

The black line in the chart: the starting price of the idea is 151.82 US-Dollar.
The red line in the chart: the stop loss is lying at 145 US-Dollar. Here could be a support. This represents a risk of around -4.49 percent.

The green line in the chart: here for me the first further turning point in the idea = first goal at about 162 US-Dollar.

CONCLUSION: From the fundamental- and news-based point of view, I consider the idea very interesting. Even though the financial legend Warren Buffett is currently repatriates his IBM             investment.

Chart-technically this happened after the GAP in October, as the consequence to profit taking. These seem to be completed now and support could be developed.

In any case, IBM             is worth an idea for me.

Main parameters of the idea:

Start of the idea: $151.82
Recent stock price: $151.82 (+ 0.00% from the starting price)
Stop-Loss of the idea: $145 (-4.49% from the starting price)
Take Profit of the idea: $200 (new highest price target)
This idea has been running since November 22, 2017.


"The trading ideas published here are neither to be understood as a recommendation nor as an offer or an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments and should not be understood as such.

You must also assume that the author holds the recommended position in his portfolio and benefits from the implementation of his trading ideas.”

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