ICX/BTC showed insane growth rate, considering its starting price(about 1000 satoshi) and currently it was making "ascending triangle" pattern, which is classic bullish pattern. (Pink dot line) The ascending triangle pattern shows us that there is some kind of price wall, so the price cannot pass above that line. in our case, 8500 satoshi will be the "price wall".
So.. is it bullish? Until yesterday, Yes. There are two factors supporting this opinion. 1.Low(bottom) is continuously ascending, which means that you cannot buy that price anymore(for now) 2.Ascending triangle is one of bullish pattern.
What happened today? The price go above to the "wall"(8500 satoshi) and tried to go further, but it didn't and came back to the price below the "wall".
should we buy now then? Absolutely NOT.
1.First of all, We can see the ascending triangle pattern if we just consider the triangle made of pink dot line. YES. It is bullish pattern, if the "price wall" is guarded well. But in this case, the "price wall" was broken today, which means that it is not ascending triangle pattern. Then what is that? I think it is ascending wedge pattern. Isn't it weird that I just called this pattern as "ascending triangle" then I changed the word to "ascending wedge"? You should know that we can be sure about the pattern when there is breakout(increasing volume, insane price change) It didn't complete its pattern, so I just assumed that it is ascending triangle pattern, but I was not considering today's movement. In short, it is ascending wedge pattern which failed to go over the price(8500 satoshi) and may have possibility to become bearish.
2.And there is MACD divergence. Divergence is the phenomenon that the price movement and indicator movement are different. we have higher high in price(today vs.January 9) But we have lower high in indicators(today vs. January 9) In this case, this phenomenon means that current price is unstable, so there is potential of trend change(bullish to bearish)
Overall, There are 2 potentially bearish factor, and I wouldn't dare to buy that.
Bình luận
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Hello, Thank you for the comments below, and here is what I'm thinking.
I agree that pattern is still debatable because ascending wedge and ascending triangle are bearish / bullish pattern, considering the good news. There is something we should know : the buying point, where the classical chart pattern strongly recommend to buy, is where the breakout happens, not inside the triangle. There is reason why they're recommending breakout point, It is safe to do that, not buying in the consolidation. Suppose it is ascending triangle : we should buy above 8500 satoshi when the time has come. But for now, the price has not passed breakout point(broke out 8500 satoshi yesterday but came back) and there is potential to be bearish, In this case I wouldn't consider buying this.
If you think I'm wrong, it's fine and even I don't trust my opinion 100%. If so, I can recommend you to buy above 8500 satoshi(the wall I said) but still I don't recommend you to buy now, in consolidation phase.
Bình luận
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The price touched support line(pink dotted line, about 7500 satoshi) and it is consolidating near support line. It does not mean I was wrong or I was right yet, because it is just consolidating in short term(about few hours)
So if you hold ICX yet, don't panic. In that situation, every bearish comment(including my trading idea) looks so true, but you should know that next movement is not decided yet.
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu
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I didn't explain the box, the box is the zone with previous consolidation, which means that it'll be support zone. Current price is at the zone(about 7000 satoshi)
The price went down enough(I'm not saying downtrend is over) and RSI or other signal is showing potential of reverse action. The price may try to touch previous support line, to test this downtrend.
There is about 15~20% price loss after I published this idea. I didn't set exact target but I saw the price broke the support line, and went down to the support zone, I'm fine with that. I expect more downtrend since 1 month old support line just broken, and only few days passed after that.
This is my first idea published. Thank you for supporting / following me for this article, and thank you all commented here.
tks Charles for ur time Max aswell pretty nice job guy´s !!
Maximilian108
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Going to disagree with you here. ICX has shown its strength throughout this consolidating BTC market.
The ascending triangle is still valid even though we had a failed breakout. I would not call this failed until we fall below the lower pink line or the two pink lines cross.
If this were an ascending wedge I would like to see at least one more confirmation on the red line. MACD can still go higher, in the next 24 hours we should break .001 satoshis BTC allowing.
Many people are holding for the Koreans to start trading this coin which will be a major volume spike where we could see a huge inflow of capital.
CharlesPark
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@Maximilian108, Thank you for your opinion. As you said it is not over until real breakout, whatever the pattern we think.
About the Korean trading, is there any reason for that? I'm Korean and kind of interested for that news.
2 reasons to expect ICX listing on korean exchanges,
1) The Loop is the company which has created ICON. The Loop is owned by Dayli Financial. Coinone is also owned by Dayli Financial, I think we will see a listing sometime after the summit. Sometime in early Feb. This one is pretty speculative as there have been no official statements - but it also is pretty logical.
2) OkCoin is starting an exchange in Korea and they will launch in early feb. They will have 60 pairs, with a handful against KRW. There has been a leaked document with all the coin listings and ICX is on there, some names are in korean but ICX was listed - whether the document is real or not, who knows? Either way I say there there is a good chance that ICX will be listed. Based on volume, market cap, and the fact that ICX is Korean.
ICX has many korean partnerships, it only makes sense for it to be listed in SK
Buy the rumor, sell the news. My target for the exchange listing is .00133 depending on the timing. My target for summit is .001+ Either way I am long on ICX. Also if you look back to Jan 4th &5th we had a failed breakout from a ascending triangle. Because of BTC fud we retested the trending support then broke out with huge strength.
CharlesPark
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@Maximilian108, I regret I didn't fully researched ICX before this article. Thank you for long reply. It's really helpful to me.
@Maximilian108, I found the market release news.
Korean market was in cryptocurrency madness last december and early January. It was so insane that BTC price discrepancy was almost 50% between global price and Korean price.
But since then, many Korean friends I know, they are exiting cryptocurrency trading.
Because, Korean government want ban whole cryptocurrency market, and they want to huge tax system for traders warning cryptocurrency madness,
and the newbies made big loss with cryptocurrency trading because of BTC downtrend recently.
So I'm skeptical about that news. Is it will be really another madness rally like Qtum or XRP recently?
Sorry for negative point of view for all of these. But I'm still with the opinion above.
jchen93
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@CharlesPark, where do you see the korean gov. wanting to ban the whole crypto market? could you provide links? Or are you up to date with the most current news?
CharlesPark
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@jchen93, Well I can give you some news about Korean gov, but they're all written in Korean.
Their official movement is try to ban, and want to downsize Korean cryptocurrency market, because many Koreans lost their money for recent BTC crash and some other bad issue.(such as Korean exchange Youbit hacked twice in a year) But also there are many people opposite that opinion, so we're not sure about next movement of gov. It's becoming political issue and you know politics is complex and dirty.