Here is a way to define the trend and how to define a trade entry and exit that has been working nicely in the Coffee futures for the past 6 months.
The last 2 trades were losses but there is a trade now that is in small profits.
The box in the top-right of this window shows the P&L of the signals from March forward.
1st - Define the trend - If RgMov (blue line) makes a 2-month low, then that is a downtrend. (2-month high for RgMov is an uptrend).
2nd - Wait for an 11-day CCI reading in the opposite direction of the trend. So, if RgMov is a downtrend, look for short term overbought readings of +100 in CCI(11-day) and then place a sell order once the price falls under the low of the range.
3rd - Place a buy-stop (stop loss) above the high of the last rally (if downtrend and selling short) or place a sell-stop (stop loss) below the low of the last decline.
4th - Exit on close once the CCI reaches the -100 for shorts, or +100 for longs.
Simple as that. Repeat the process.
ALSO: You don't have to keep taking signals if this system stops working. I suggest that if the 2-month trend of profitability is BELOW the 50% speed line or the 50% mark of the P&L, then stop trading the system. It means the market is no longer trending.
Cheers
Tim 10:34PM EST 9/17/2015
The last 2 trades were losses but there is a trade now that is in small profits.
The box in the top-right of this window shows the P&L of the signals from March forward.
1st - Define the trend - If RgMov (blue line) makes a 2-month low, then that is a downtrend. (2-month high for RgMov is an uptrend).
2nd - Wait for an 11-day CCI reading in the opposite direction of the trend. So, if RgMov is a downtrend, look for short term overbought readings of +100 in CCI(11-day) and then place a sell order once the price falls under the low of the range.
3rd - Place a buy-stop (stop loss) above the high of the last rally (if downtrend and selling short) or place a sell-stop (stop loss) below the low of the last decline.
4th - Exit on close once the CCI reaches the -100 for shorts, or +100 for longs.
Simple as that. Repeat the process.
ALSO: You don't have to keep taking signals if this system stops working. I suggest that if the 2-month trend of profitability is BELOW the 50% speed line or the 50% mark of the P&L, then stop trading the system. It means the market is no longer trending.
Cheers
Tim 10:34PM EST 9/17/2015
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