When we take a look at other technical indicators, the ( ) is at 63.7117. tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the is overbought and due to drop. This indicator has not received overbought territory since the end of February. However, this indicator has been trending downward preventing newer highs. Currently, this oscillator is at the resistance point it has been reversing at. This is the first indication of potential downward movement in the near-term.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 8.0001. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. This indicator has also had resistance similar to that observed in the oscillator. Once again the indicator is near that level of resistance. This is the second indication of potential downward movement in the near-term.
The positive indicator ( VI ) is at 0.9866 and the negative is at 0.9193. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently both indicators are relatively flat (below 1) and have been in a very tight movement span since early May. The stock should move in the direction of which ever indicator breaks from this tight pattern.
The oscillator K value is 89.3405 and D value is 58.6453. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The K value is currently overbought, but the overall oscillator is not yet overbought. The stock could move up a little more before reversing, or it could simply reverse now. This is the third indication of potential downward movement in the near-term.
The formation of the is the fourth indication of potential downward movement. A occurred in March and the stock dropped 9.33% over 16 trading days. If this is indeed a , a similar drop could occur.
Considering the , TSI, VI and levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 2.60% over the next 29 trading days if not sooner.
-Elliott Wave Ideas (elliottwaveideas.com)