Giving another try to harmonic patterns, this time on Litecoin paired with Bitcoin, since I think BTC ultimately drives most crypto prices and might behave better than a USD pair (maybe). Also, starting earlier in the pattern to maximize usefulness, so a lot of this is purely speculative and is only one realization of the Bearish Alt Bat pattern. A couple of the lengths are listed as ranges, so I have gone so far with the maximum of the range, but will adjust as the pattern unfolds and does or doesn't follow these. I might also add a pattern with the minimums or some mix to see the possible outcomes.
Ultimately I'm bullish on the chikun, but I wanted to present a "bearish" alternative since most people seem pretty bullish on Litecoin. This harmonic seems like a pretty bullish bear though.
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Times are purely guesses too, just a rough idea of when the event might happen.
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I realized it probably already has passed point B, so we're now headed down to C, updated the pattern a bit tradingview.com/x/vcf468bW/.
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altered the timeframe a bit, it isn't likely it would take nearly as long as I had guessed, price points are basically the same.
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I don't think we've hit Point C yet, but it's possible we're very close to the reversal point. A price point of 0.01570 would still fit the Bearish Alt Bat pattern - this could happen as soon as North America wakes up and starts trading after noticing the pumps going on for BTC (within a couple hours).
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For that last update I put point C at the 78.6% Fib retracement of AB, which seems like a pretty likely place for it to occur.
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Having said.. I'll be closing my short pretty soon just in case.
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I'll wait a little bit to update the chart, but I think we're now heading back up on CD.
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Here is an updated chart, I'm thinking we will reverse around ~7 PM MST on July 23 based on Fib time, at a price of around 0.02235.
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Depending how fast we go up from here, a Bullish 5-0 Pattern could be what we're seeing on a smaller scale, or Bullish Three Drives. Either way, we should continue up with a potential retrace at Point C to D, and then continue on upwards.
Bullish 5-0
Bullish Three Drives
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Either way it should be done its consolidation pretty quick and make a move
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A bit late on seeing this one... Bearish Gartley
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Couple more potential harmonicss.
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Final point - I'm assuming this won't play out as I'd hoped and am probably going to just accept that. This is a falling wedge and I'm pretty sure we're going to end up going down. Having said, might be a good shorting opportunity soon, but I probably won't continue to update this unless it gets back on track.
Good luck guys (if anyone is reading this)!
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Bearish wedge (its a rising wedge, I always mix up the name and say falling wedge). Anyways, down we go...
@DJLoveHz, Anytime! Hopefully next time it works out a bit better... I'm pretty sure it'll jump off the cliff in the next few hours though, haha.
afvm
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@Korastiz, hi, do you believe the price will just dropping to the support zone day 24 of July and then, after this day will going up to the resistence?
Korastiz
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@FilipeValentim, Hi, I originally thought we'd be hitting the resistance on the 24th of July, but now I'm thinking differently. I think we are still in a corrective wave for LTC and will be doing a bit more sideways action. Once BTC break 3k though, I think we'll be back into bullish LTC and heading upwards into the 0.02+ range. Expecting this to happen in the next couple days, but before August 1st for sure.
Korastiz
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@Korastiz, Right now though I'm neither long nor short on LTC until it finishes this chop that it's going through.
rig0
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You wrote that "Possivle Reversal Time" is 'July 23 7PM', but you mean 'July 24 7PM ' ?
And Please let me know the time zone of where you live.
because I want to know the time in Japan.
( I am Japanese and live in Tokyo. )
I am not good at English. So please be generous in finding my rude expressions, if any .
Korastiz
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@rig0, You're definitely right, sorry long night of no sleep :)... hopefully worth it though.. Thanks for catching that.
I'm in MST (Mountain Standard Time) which in UST-7, currently 9:30 AM. The time is just a guess though, I just wanted to take a stab at when it might happen.
Korastiz
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@Korastiz, If BTC ends up not breaking out here soon, we might actually go down to test the ~0.01575 or lower mark. I think we will be okay, but, things are pretty volatile right now.
Korastiz
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@Korastiz, That is assuming LTC follows BTC which it tends to typically do in an overall trend sense.
rig0
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@Korastiz, 16 hours behind Tokyo! Thank you very much ! And have a nice dream!