It appears that LTCBTC could potentially be nearing the end of a terminal impulse wave-c, or alternatively an expanding triangle wave-c that is part of a larger triangle. The former is much more likely, though, which means we could be preparing for the largest bullish impulsive wave on LTCBTC ever over the next year. It also means that this is possibly the lowest price that LTCBTC will ever be at, as long as one of the counts here is right.
Right now, the terminal impulse count makes the most sense because seeing an expanding triangle as the wave-c of a larger contracting triangle would be really unlikely. Also, the time considerations for waves (a)(b) and (c) are what you'd expect from a wave-c failure (ie, wave-a is the smallest, wave-b is bigger than wave-a and wave-c is the longest and is a terminal). However, not only is this a wave-c failure it's an irregular failure so that means the implications after this wave are extremely powerful, but the only way to know for sure which wave it actually is, is to see how the wave-c gets retraced. If the wave-c is retraced in 50% or less time than wave-c took to form, then it was most likely a terminal which is part of an irregular failure, but if it gets retraced in more than 50% time then it was probably a expanding triangle and we'll get a wave-e down before finally getting the largest bullish impulsive wave ever. Either way though, this is very likely going to be the bottom (or very close to it) for LTCBTC, and we'll never see these prices again. Also if we do get another impulse up it's hard to say exactly how big it will be but most likely it will be at least as big as wave-b and we'll eventually get more than one after a correction.
Fundamentally, the lack of leadership on Bitcoin, the split on development, the inability to fix the blocksize and lower fees, the threats from big miners and market makers to create a hard fork, the rejection of multiple ETFs, and the stricter regulations from China could cause a lot of people to speculate on Litecoin and other cryptocurrencies while bitcoin begins to fall back. Litecoin has significantly faster transaction times and lower fees and has proven to be safe and reliable for the last 6 years, not many coins have as long of a history as Litecoin. There's a lot of interest in cryptocurrency right now, and speculators have been hungry for altcoins recently while bitcoin has lost a lot of its market cap dominance this year, this could begin to spill over into Litecoin soon as people continue to look for a way to reinvest their BTC.
My goodness, you are the altcoin whisperer. You called Decred and Litecoin is popping right now this moment. Who are you, are you Satoshi? ;)
fortunekr
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Will this be the greatest call in all of human history? I can't wait to find out.
Just fucking wow.
ReneFroger
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I followed you a longer time, but you was spot on with this Litecoin thing. Just coincidence? Or a pump and dump scheme? I just don't know, but it seems you're right with your TA.
I decided I want to hire you for trading analysis and signals, but for Bitcoin markets only. I will contact you soon.
omgosaurus
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You gained a new follower.
ltc-joe
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Thanks for you analysis. Will be very interesting to see how it plays out, but regardless, I do agree this is the lowest we'll see ltc/btc possibly ever again. On the fundamental side of things, a huge aspect is also the inevitability of segwit coming to litecoin. And ultimately the LN which is IMO the single most exciting technology in crypto-currencies. At worst, this technology will be tested on litecoin, and once proven to work with an attackable bounty, eventually be adopted by bitcoin. At best (with respect to litecoin)...there is a very real possibility that litecoin will get this technology, and bitcoin will simply never be able to get consensus on anything (possibly because it just grows too big to change). That may not be a bad thing at the end of the day. Digital gold should be hard to change, and other cryptocurrencies can attempt other things. The industry wins.
Intuit
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@btc_joe, Segwit will eventually be activated too which is a good point, and then lightning network after that. I think it will happen on Vertcoin first though, as they are significantly closer to activating segwit than LTC and it requires significantly less hashing power to push them over the limit. Vertcoin will also probably be the first to get the Lightning Network and will be the true public test run. And that was the point I was making earlier in saying that LTC has better leadership and a lot less friction in the development process than BTC does so it has a lot more potential for interesting developments like LN to be implemented after it is tested on coins like Vertcoin.
ltc-joe
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@Intuit, interesting, dk much about it Vert but I dont doubt it. But ya, it is inevitable on ltc, F2 pool (around 40% hash) has already publicly committed to it, but is building the software.
So when they signal (should be any week now), I have to assume that will take us past the 75% threshold. In terms of leadership and development, I totally agree but I think there is a subtle point that is essential, less friction and more leadership is both good and bad. Charlie lee is a great leader, and I agree its great that him, and other alt coin leaders have a much easier time at making changes to their coins. It's awesome. But alternatively, it's not a knock on bitcoin core. I think bitcoin core also has excellent leadership, sometimes the best action is not to take any action. I think the vast majority of bitcoins value comes from gold's trillion $ market seeping into bitcoin. And that will continue, as long as bitcoin remains both very hard to make changes to, and decentralized. If that makes any sense. Bitcoin can not do everything for everyone, but crypto-currencies as whole, and layers above, or some combination of the two can.
erelerel
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great analysis! any update?
mikenz
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Great chart, excellent. I can see LTC is progressing short term because of SegWit adoption.
What I fail to understand is how this could make a sustainable long term trend. Just because of SegWit? It is still hopelessly outdated.
Intuit
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@mikenz, Quite simply the tech behind Litecoin is not only better than Bitcoin, there is much better consensus and actual leadership. All the problems I listed above with bitcoin more or less do not currently exist in Litecoin. There is no threat of a hard fork, no rogue miners, no complete abandonment by the creator, there is an actual vision and a future for Litecoin whereas the only vision for Bitcoin is that it will probably never change, at least not until the centralized miners who refuse to concede start losing money, but by that time it will be too late to save Bitcoin. Litecoin is just one of many technologies that will be used in place of bitcoin because it is significantly faster and has more features and better development, Litecoin has the unique advantage of being the 2nd oldest coin and having the longest history of any cryptocurrency except Bitcoin, and has suffered from very few (if any) major losses, unlike cryptos like Ethereum which are seen as more experimental and less secure than older cryptos like Bitcoin and Litecoin. It's hard to say which cryptos are going to come out on top but many of them are going to see massive gains over the next few months and Bitcoin will likely see major losses due to the bad news cycle beginning now for Bitcoin and a good news cycle beginning for Altcoins.