Hi friends! Let's take a look at Litecoin! Looking at the four hour chart, we can see that a breakdown did occur from the symmetrical triangle, but, instead of producing a continuation to the downside, price action just tiptoed higher. Despite the weird sequence of events (breakdown to upside trade) it's actually shaping up to be a nice recovery. Although, it's important to stress that LTC isn't out of the woods just yet. We held the pink support level
, and finally broke above the 50 EMA
(in orange,) but LTC has been stopped cold, just below the heavy overhead resistance, at the 61.8% retrace. I want to point something out that is noteworthy. Look at the 50 EMA
, and particularly, focus on the instances where it was surpassed. You can see that each time LTC traded above it, it was not sustained for a long period of time. It is possible, that we may be experiencing another failed breakout above the 50 EMA
, which is why I don't want to get too bullish
just yet. Just above, is the heavy overhead resistance level
, and not too far above that, we have the 200 EMA
(in purple) and then the top of the downtrend channel
. Let me say this right now — we are in a bear market downtrend. Don't forget that. Until something changes the trend, this is still a bear market correction. You may be wondering what sort of technical development would potentially signal a change, in the bear market correction. I can tell you that, from my perspective, a break above the top of the downtrend channel
, will definitely get my attention, and probably cause me to jump on the bull train. Looking closely at the current price action, it looks like a small bull flag
is building just under the heavy resistance level
, which may produce another pop higher. For the moment, we need to see how things go at the heavy resistance level
. With that said, I want to clarify something else. The middle of a channel, isn't particularly the best place to place a trade. Typically, you want to wait until the price action reaches the top or bottom of the channel, assess what it does there, and then place your trade. For example, if LTC rallies back up to the top of the channel, and then produces a sharp reversal, that would be a sell signal, especially if it were coupled with a reversal in momentum, or some other bearish
indicator. That is JUST AN EXAMPLE, and not a suggestion for a real trade. I'm just trying to illustrate where inside of a channel, you would be best served to place a trade. If a breakout occurred, obviously, you would play that differently. Being an expert trader, requires constant analysis, as you scan the market and look for optimal entry points. The middle of a channel, is not generally an optimal entry point.
Going forward, look for LTC to trade to the top of the downtrend channel
, or break below the pink support level
. If it gets to the top of the downtrend channel
, pay close attention to the way it behaves. If a breakout occurs, the bulls will clearly be turning things around. A break below the pink support level
, will open the door to the 78.6% retrace.
Successful, expert trading, is all about placing high probability of success trades, and mitigating your risk. Waiting for the perfect trade opportunity, is sometimes a part of that. In this case, I am waiting to see if we break above the downtrend channel
. I am sacrificing these small, inter-channel gains, for a potentially much larger trade, if and when we get above this channel. That's how pros trade. We wait, and the strike when the success of the trade is heavily in our favor. Until that happens, do not fall in love with the upside.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-MPC loves you-